Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 6z GEFS shows that whatever ridging the Op run has it's an outlier. A very wet run with NO ridging at all. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 6z GEFS shows that whatever ridging the Op run has it's an outlier. A very wet run with NO ridging at all. The 06 looks windy for that system on Tuesday/Wednesday next week especially in the Sound 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Just now, Doiinko said: The 06 looks windy for that system on Tuesday/Wednesday next week especially in the Sound That's something to keep an eye on as many model runs of the GFS/GEM/ECMWF have shown a deep low offshore. It is wind storm season after all. 12z GFS in 2 hours 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 A mild 54˚F this morning with an AQI of 160. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 43 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 6z GEFS shows that whatever ridging the Op run has it's an outlier. A very wet run with NO ridging at all. That op run felt like an outlier. And good to see it was. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 There is smoke in the lightrail station. 200' underground. 1 3 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 First frontal precip entering the area now 5 3 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: First frontal precip entering the area now Mostly virga here. Only a few drops making it to the ground. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Drizzle and smoke currently. I thought the smoke was supposed to largely be gone at this point. 1 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 It was 39F when I got up. Currently 40F. Mostly clear. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Hey everyone! Haven't been on here in a while. Was waiting for the flip to switch. My son just turned 1 last week and my house is all framed up right now. I've got 3 weeks left in Edmonds before we hit the road. What does Saturday look like in terms of precip, at the moment? Just showers? 9 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Hey everyone! Haven't been on here in a while. Was waiting for the flip to switch. My son just turned 1 last week and my house is all framed up right now. I've got 3 weeks left in Edmonds before we hit the road. What does Saturday look like in terms of precip, at the moment? Just showers? Where are you going? Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: Where are you going? Goodyear, AZ. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Goodyear, AZ. You are going to miss an epic amazing November here! 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Goodyear, AZ. But no more snowfor you Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 17 hours ago, NWbyNW said: And last post from me for a bit. Here are the latest smoke model runs showing some of that clearing coming tonight in Washington and a bit later for Oregon. Note one model isn't showing ground level smoke. I just thought it showed the smoke sweeping away very good. My gosh are we lucky to have seen smoke model forecasting really improve over the past three years. Not that long ago, we didn't even have anything to look at. Now we have at least three that are pretty decent. Sadly this forecast was not right. It's not clearing out at all yet. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Well my grand plans are shot. Was planning on taking today off to blow off all of the ash on everything I don’t want ash on and then get all of the patio furniture put away for the year since ash was supposed to no longer be falling from the sky. And also mow. But now it’s raining so all of the ash I was going to simply blow off will now be a lovely goo. I want tons of rain but I was expecting today to be dry and was going to work on the property all day with clean air to be fully ready for the fall storms. Very disappointing suffocating day so far. Feel free to fling me hotdogs. 1 3 1 1 12 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: But no more snowfor you I prefer to look at it as 'no more heartache'. 1 1 1 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Mist and smoke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 I have a feeling this thing Friday evening through Saturday is going to bust pretty hard from Portland south. Maybe .10'' - .20'' before the rain tapers to showers late Friday night. Scattered downpours on Saturday. Meanwhile, Longview to Seattle will do well. Portland is right on the edge and could catch the southern edge of the steady precip. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Day 9 Looks mighty stormy! I like. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Earliest freeze in decades here this AM. That 1988 analog is an interesting one, we’ve been following it to a tee since September. Only thing now is we’ve entered a subseasonal +AAM cycle which looks to stick around for at least a couple of weeks, possibly longer. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: First frontal precip entering the area now Ahead of schedule Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 The air is killing us. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: I have a feeling this thing Friday evening through Saturday is going to bust pretty hard from Portland south. Maybe .10'' - .20'' before the rain tapers to showers late Friday night. Scattered downpours on Saturday. Meanwhile, Longview to Seattle will do well. Portland is right on the edge and could catch the southern edge of the steady precip. The NAM is usually a more accurate picture of valley floor QPF than the lower res major models are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: There is smoke in the lightrail station. 200' underground. that's some pretty ingenuitive smoke 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 37 last hour with what looks like Smog 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 I always wondered how they made liquid smoke and now I know. AQI is 250 with drips falling from the sky. 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 The inversion must go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 It's always interesting with snowstorms out here this time of the year. Very similar to PNW lowlands snowstorms, most of the time it is all dependent on precip rates and where the heaviest band sets up. Right now the models continue to insist that Bozeman will be under a very heavy band and dump 12-18" of snow this weekend. Huge bust potential with this though. Right now I'd go with 2-18" of snowfall haha! 7 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: I always wondered how they made liquid smoke and now I know. AQI is 250 with drips falling from the sky. Horrific morning. 1 3 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Once again I blame Tim and his posts yesterday saying we would be well on our way to clean air by now and didn’t mention anything about ash rain falling. You let me down again and I am greatly disappointed in you. 2 3 1 2 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 It's the fires that need to get dumped on. Drizzle from low level marine layer or radiation fog won't help anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: It's the fires that need to get dumped on. Drizzle from low level marine layer or radiation fog won't help anything. I think that what we’re now seeing is more than that. It’s just a very weak system without much moisture, so it’s mostly virga. Tomorrow’s system will be jucier, and it will be followed by others. 4 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 34 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: that's some pretty ingenuitive smoke During the deadly “fogs” of London (which were really sulphuric acid mists caused by coal smoke interacting with fog), sometimes the reduced visibility would be noted inside theatres. 3 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: During the deadly “fogs” of London (which were really sulphuric acid mists caused by coal smoke interacting with fog), sometimes the reduced visibility would be noted inside theatres. There was a winter month I believe in 1896 of weather obs where London’s station recorded 0 hours of sunshine for the whole month. Cloud cover was actually below average that month and the complete lack of sunshine was caused entirely by smog. Outside of London it was a sunnier than average month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, MossMan said: Once again I blame Tim and his posts yesterday saying we would be well on our way to clean air by now and didn’t mention anything about ash rain falling. You let me down again and I am greatly disappointed in you. Yeah... this sucks. No idea why it can't scour out. The smoke models were pretty clear that it would happen this morning. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 12Z GFS has entirely new ideas for later next week. Probably wrong. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... this sucks. No idea why it can't scour out. The smoke models were pretty clear that it would happen this morning. well, we should get those pesky algorithms out there to do some work and blow out the smoke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Just now, Phishy Wx said: well, we should get those pesky algorithms out there to do some work and blow out the smoke Probably similar phenomenon with the models always scouring out low level cold air too fast. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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