smerfylicious Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: East wind? The snow slowed up a bit and my garbage can came back from the other dimension. Should be straight from the pass. 20221129_162625.mp4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: To my untrained eye, the center of cyclonic circulation looks to be offshore the middle of Vancouver Island. Both GFS and ECMWF had it on top of Vancouver Island. Then they diverge in direction, especially from the 12Z ECMWF today. It is almost on the island here. The lowest SLP observation still says 989. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Snowing hard at work again and definitely sticking. My work is not at 1000ft NWS Seattle. current work van view. (Just moving it in the parking lot) 9 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 why are you guys using global models for short term/nowcasting? I'm sure the NWS is not doing such and cancelling as appropriate. (I haven't looked at any models recently, just a hunch) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said: I wonder if they’re expecting a wind shift earlier than modeled on the GFS/EURO? They both stay mostly easterly into the early morning whereas the NBM and mesoscale models flip to southerly way quicker. NBM vs EURO at midnight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 So much snow in everyone's photos! Very cool. Sadly everywhere I drove was just wet roads. Nothing exciting, but it was fun to watch the snow on the radar and see the cold temps! I tried to drive to bigger snow bands when I could, lol. It has snowed here all day though, from when I woke up to now. But it's small little flakes blowing around in the wind. Nonetheless, there are Everett city street plows on practically every block, lol. Also got a high wind warning while I was driving which was cool. Look forward to that... I guess? Winds coming from the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: Hard to blame the NWS. It's a borderline situation with a lot of complicated dynamics and the models have been all over the place. Except observations don't lineup with their claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 I have to say I'm pleasantly surprised by the inch or so I got today. Not off to a bad start. Interestingly the current temp is smack dab on 32.0 with a mix falling here. Of course a lot of places that are warmer are getting straight snow. Seen this so many times here. The models indicate 925mb temps will fall a tad with the heavier precip arrives. Could get interesting. 10 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Wow, I’m up to 35 now. Bummer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: I have to say I'm pleasantly surprised by the inch or so I got today. Not off to a bad start. Interestingly the current temp is smack dab on 32.0 with a mix falling here. Of course a lot of places that are warmer are getting straight snow. Seen this so many times here. The models indicate 925mb temps will fall a tad with the heavier precip arrives. Could get interesting. Doesn’t look likely here at 38 degrees but tomorrow night looks pretty good! Picked up 0.7” of snow today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Hour 90 on the 18z Euro has a surface temp of 36F and a DP of 24F at PDX with an east wind at the surface as precip is arriving early Saturday AM from the approaching low. Almost looks like the low might be staying too far offshore to get all that much precip though but hard to tell without seeing what happens after. Hopefully this works out on the 00z Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: Snowing hard at work again and definitely sticking. My work is not at 1000ft NWS Seattle. current work van view. (Just moving it in the parking lot) The 15 miles between us makes quite a difference. Raining and 35. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanNyberg Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 East wind picked up in Issaquah, temp knocked down to 32. 6 -------------------- Sean Nyberg IG: @SeanNyberg X: @SeanNyberg Facebook: Sean Nyberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: NBM vs EURO at midnight: Looks like a lot of weather stations have wind out of the east right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Doesn’t look likely here at 38 degrees but tomorrow night looks pretty good! Picked up 0.7” of snow today. Tomorrow night looks great. the models have actually sped up the arrival of the colder air aloft by a few hours. 7 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, MossMan said: Snowing hard at work again and definitely sticking. My work is not at 1000ft NWS Seattle. current work van view. (Just moving it in the parking lot) About 300' there eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: why are you guys using global models for short term/nowcasting? I'm sure the NWS is doing such and cancelling as appropriate. (I haven't looked at any models recently, just a hunch) Because none of the mesoscale models are at all competent. If I was looking 1 hour in the future, the HRRR, 3km NAM, RAP, and whatever other model you want to consider would be at the bottom of my list. They frequently can't even initialize correctly and have extreme changes from run to run. I wouldn't trust one to tell me if it was going to rain an hour from now let alone tell me how much snow I'm going to get. 5 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 I look forward to the panic advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 For Western Washington! For Western Oregon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: why are you guys using global models for short term/nowcasting? I'm sure the NWS is not doing such and cancelling as appropriate. (I haven't looked at any models recently, just a hunch) HRRR shows a good amount of snow north of Seattle NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 26 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Winter storm warning dropped with no accumulation expected now per NWS. What a ride. I mean, technically a rug-pull could be a ride.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skywatcher Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Yeah today has panned out a little bit on the disappointment side for me. Was snowing for a good chunk of the day in Maple Valley before finally switching over to rain at 2. Pretty much no accumulation on the road after this morning's burst. Which was great for driving home in, but not so great for the snow lover in me. The little accumulation I got this morning at home melted off this afternoon, so now it's just 35 degrees and a cold, cold rain. Shred it! Greater Maple Valley area @ ~550' AGL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Looks like the flurry storm may be done here. 37/33F spread and sprinkles. I guess we'll see if heavy precip rates can bring snow, but I don't think I'll end up seeing any accumulating snow today. Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Getting some new chunky splats here now after being 100% rain for the past few hours. Weather station temp says 38 still but car says 34, though I know that's ridiculously unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Shame that the southerly winds will probably warm us into the low 40s before midnight…could’ve had our first sub 40 high this season today and yesterday too but it briefly hit 40 yesterday afternoon. Speaking of southerlies…could be a decent punch of wind tonight and some rain. Weather is staying pretty active inbetween snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Because none of the mesoscale models are at all competent. If I was looking 1 hour in the future, the HRRR, 3km NAM, RAP, and whatever other model you want to consider would be at the bottom of my list. They frequently can't even initialize correctly and have extreme changes from run to run. I wouldn't trust one to tell me if it was going to rain an hour from now let alone tell me how much snow I'm going to get. and the globals don't have the resolution so I guess there is good and bad going either way. Does the NBM blend it all? I honestly don't know but curious. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Radar really filling in over Kitsap now. Looks like the main event (precip intensity wise) is taking shape now and rates should really pick up around 6-10PM. Question is how much if that falls as snow. IMG_5686.MOV 4 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Shame that the southerly winds will probably warm us into the low 40s before midnight…could’ve had our first sub 40 high this season today and yesterday too but it briefly hit 40 yesterday afternoon. Speaking of southerlies…could be a decent punch of wind tonight and some rain. Weather is staying pretty active inbetween snowfalls. Thursday looks borderline. I never trust gray snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: For Western Washington! For Western Oregon. That little green hole northeast of Everett is my place! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: I look forward to the panic advisories. This is one of those situations that no doubt keeps mets up at night. The margin for error is very slim but has huge implications for the public. And they're destined to almost certainly be very wrong some places, regardless of which model they favor or how experienced they are. 3 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said: About 300' there eh? 350! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: Thursday looks borderline. I never trust gray snow Temps won’t be as much of an issue tomorrow night. Todays set up has bust potential up north because it’s very precip dependent. (Still might work out up there) temps and DPs are pretty realistic for some snowfall tomorrow night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said: and the globals don't have the resolution so I guess there is good and bad going either way. Does the NBM blend it all? I honestly don't know but curious. Yeah, the lack of resolution is problematic but at least you only have to look at bad forecasts every 12 or maybe 6 hours instead of every hour The NBM is a crazy blend of models. I don't know if it's a constant blend or uses some sort of dynamic blending algorithm that forecasts based on the conditions/strengths and weaknesses of each model. Here are all the models included: 7 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Temp got up to 36 here, back down to 34 and snow is mixing back in. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 The wind is nuts here. I live in a forest so I don't have good readings. But it's pretty wild. My highest gust of the year was 18 mph on Jan 6th... Snowing sideways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoodCanalBridge Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 It switched to rain here this morning, but within the last 15 minutes it’s switched over to full snow. Turned my tv chair back around to face the street lamp across the street! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, Skagit Weather said: Yeah, the lack of resolution is problematic but at least you only have to look at bad forecasts every 12 or maybe 6 hours instead of every hour The NBM is a crazy blend of models. I don't know if it's a constant blend or uses some sort of dynamic blending algorithm that forecasts based on the conditions/strengths and weaknesses of each model. Here are all the models included: Just about to post something similar. Here is what I found: NBM Background: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is a complicated process with millions of observations and calculations needed to create a single forecast. At the top of each hour of the day, the NBM processes NWP output from both the National Center of Environmental Prediction’s (NCEPs) operational job stream and several non-American NWP weather sources. The NBM ingests and bias corrects a host of weather elements and determines the optimum weights to be assigned to each model when generating a final blended forecast. Simply put, the NBM takes whatever models are available from 31 different model systems (for rainfall forecasts a total of 171 inputs) and combines the information into a single forecast. Intense research into model performance over time has given today’s meteorologists a baseline of known model biases. Verification of the NBM output has shown that this methodology consistently outperforms individual model runs over time leading to a more accurate and consistent dataset of available guidance. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 38 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: 5 inches and dumping still. What a fantastic Winter Wonderland! Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 38 minutes ago, KingstonWX said: What's funny is the AFD says snow for areas 1000ft+ but the updated WWA says 4-6" above 500ft. NWS can't figure this out either. Easier to be somewhat right this way. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Temp got up to 36 here, back down to 34 and snow is mixing back in. Is that band over you pretty heavy or still not as hefty as radar makes it appear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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