MWG Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 NWS Medford...welp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Works for me They’re talking about the beginning of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just watched Michael Snyders video. Seems like he’s leaning toward the euro. 7 1 1 https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Lack of an arctic front means WAY more snow up here. 6 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, dhoffine said: I just got done telling my wife all about an arctic blast next week, and now I come back on and I get a little sense of dread from the forums? is the rug pulling? Well December 1958 suddenly got thrown around and Mr. Snowmizer quit the forum but other than that we are still looking good. At least in Wa State. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Lack of an arctic front means WAY more snow up here. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 How does one go about recommending their own post? Notice Admin is recommending Admin. Weird, wild stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildrootParable Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 I notice Mr. Snowmizer was true to his word and didn't comment since earlier, and that's a shame because as far as I can tell he's the closest equivalent to my location and I keep an eye on the things he says to guage my own enthusiasm. I hope he comes back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Well December 1958 suddenly got thrown around and Mr. Snowmizer quit the forum but other than that we are still looking good. At least in Wa State. I don't know what happened. It almost certain next week is going to be straight up crazy... regardless of random analogs. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I don't know what happened. It almost certain next week is going to be straight up crazy... regardless of random analogs. Probably Everett north at best. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, Terreboner said: Probably Everett north at best. Actually looks fine from Olympia north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 When the snow forecast went to garage I went and spent a few days at my moms when she still lived on Moses Lake. It was amazing over there. 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, WildrootParable said: I notice Mr. Snowmizer was true to his word and didn't comment since earlier, and that's a shame because as far as I can tell he's the closest equivalent to my location and I keep an eye on the things he says to guage my own enthusiasm. I hope he comes back. everyone comes back 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 NWS Spokane: As we move into the weekend, this is when the forecast starts to become quite tricky. Deterministic models and ensembles are in pretty solid agreement that a low pressure system originating from the arctic to slide down the eastern edge of this ridge and stalling over British Columbia. The uncertainty lies on how far south this arctic boundary will push into the Pacific Northwest. There is nearly an even split among the ensembles on how this weekend into next week will pan out with about a third of the ensembles keep ridging over the region, which would result in temperatures below seasonal averages, but warmer that the rest of the solutions through the next week and light snow. Another third brings the boundary into the region, with widespread very cold temperatures and snow, and another third suggesting relatively cold temperatures but brings in a bit more snow compared to the other scenarios. Given this degree of uncertainty, kept temperatures as the current NBM forecast along with chances for snow Sunday through Tuesday. This forecast will more than likely change many times as we time goes on, but the main message remains the same, cold temperatures along with chances for snow by the end of the weekend into next week. /vmt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, WildrootParable said: I notice Mr. Snowmizer was true to his word and didn't comment since earlier, and that's a shame because as far as I can tell he's the closest equivalent to my location and I keep an eye on the things he says to guage my own enthusiasm. I hope he comes back. What did he say? I missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just a reminder... the 12Z ECMWF showed almost everyone gets snow. I don't think it's fair to just say nothing will happen farther south. 9 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowstone Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Just a reminder... the 12Z ECMWF showed almost everyone gets snow. I don't think it's fair to just say nothing will happen farther south. Yes but how am I supposed to enjoy measly 11 inches when I know some people are getting…checks notes… 87.6? 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Lots of hesitation still and rightfully so. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: What did he say? I missed it https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/15676-pnw-december-2022-winter-might-be-coming-but-mostly-canceled/&do=findComment&comment=1032129 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bainbridgekid Posted December 15, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Apparently starting with tonight’s 00z WRF run the 1.33km resolution will be run all the way to 240 hours. So now we get to see an ultra high resolution image of what definitely won’t happen. 1 14 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Amazing to think this week will likely be colder than next. 2 1 1 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Do we have a chance in January? January will likely start out with +PNA. Not sure how mid/late month will evolve, would depend on the strat and degree of IO forcing relative to the WPAC. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildrootParable Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Not my fault and I'm done posting comments in this thread. @SouthHillFrosty To me it seemed to come out of nowhere; I didn't see a buildup to this. But I think someone added the context later that he was getting annoyed with the negativity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 GFS and GEM look bad for Portland but very good for Seattle 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 26 minutes ago, WildrootParable said: I notice Mr. Snowmizer was true to his word and didn't comment since earlier, and that's a shame because as far as I can tell he's the closest equivalent to my location and I keep an eye on the things he says to guage my own enthusiasm. I hope he comes back. Why did he quit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Phil said: January will likely start out with +PNA. Not sure how mid/late month will evolve, would depend on the strat and degree of IO forcing relative to the WPAC. I thought you said we didn’t need a -PNA to score? Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Front Ranger said: Every Judah gets his day. I’ll take it. Big mid/late December cold is a great sign here during La Niña winters. The torchy niña winters begin tipping their hand right about now. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Beautiful day today. Caught some great views of Rainier and the Cascades. Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Down to 33 already. May get down to the mid 20s tonight here. 1 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 2 Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: I thought you said we didn’t need a -PNA to score? Correct. But blocking over AK/-EPO would be a prerequisite in that case. Or fluky evolutions like February 2021, which was driven by a retrograding -NAO. 4 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Winter Warlock Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Went to Costco and grabbed a DJI Mini 2 to prepare for the 3 ft. of snow and ice Hoth landscape that is to come. Should be good. 2 Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Valley Duck Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Team NAM! 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Any predictions for snow totals and temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just a reminder... the 12Z ECMWF showed almost everyone gets snow. I don't think it's fair to just say nothing will happen farther south. We’re about a week out or so before the arrival of the Arctic air. Still a lot can change but anybody from Eugene North is still in play. Going to be a fun few days ahead model riding this event! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 If you want to feel cold, track the Yakutsk weather station in Russia. Down to -54. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UEEE&hours=168 2 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildrootParable Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, rsktkr said: Why did he quit? I'm not entirely sure. I think there were some nuances at play that I missed, since I'm newer around here. But as I've noticed that he's been a big force for optimism about this upcoming event, I think some of the negativity earlier today was starting to bother him, perhaps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, WildrootParable said: I'm not entirely sure. I think there were some nuances at play that I missed, since I'm newer around here. But as I've noticed that he's been a big force for optimism about this upcoming event, I think some of the negativity earlier today was starting to bother him, perhaps? I don't get the negativity. Big snows and cold are fun, but if you can't enjoy rain and typical PNW weather, you should move to a different location. 6 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, WildrootParable said: I'm not entirely sure. I think there were some nuances at play that I missed, since I'm newer around here. But as I've noticed that he's been a big force for optimism about this upcoming event, I think some of the negativity earlier today was starting to bother him, perhaps? Jesse can alienate even the nicest among us. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, WildrootParable said: @SouthHillFrosty To me it seemed to come out of nowhere; I didn't see a buildup to this. But I think someone added the context later that he was getting annoyed with the negativity. He should just login at night. This place is cranky and petulant in the mornings. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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