PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

Where did you see that? 

The point forecast from the NWS for PDX

[RentonHill]

Euro temps initializing a couple degrees colder on the west side of WA already compared to 06z. 

[Skagit Weather]

22 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Very true and a good explanation why. Bozeman was one of the very few cities that actually cooled with its newest 1991-2020 climate normals.

From wiki:

"Unlike most of the country, Bozeman has actually gotten cooler with the new 1991–2020 normals. Average highs dropped by 1.7°F (0.72°C), especially in spring and summer. It has also gotten wetter and snowier."

Wow! You're a couple degrees warmer than I thought in the winter. I figured for sure Bozeman averaged subfreezing highs for much Dec-Feb.

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Euro temps initializing a couple degrees colder on the west side of WA already compared to 06z. 

That’s a big deal! 

[Prairiedog]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The point forecast from the NWS for PDX

The AFD hadn't updated yet.  I was looking there.

 

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Euro temps initializing a couple degrees colder on the west side of WA already compared to 06z. 

It's still 8 degrees too warm here...

[lowlandsnow]

Looks slightly farther North

[Gummy]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Euro temps initializing a couple degrees colder on the west side of WA already compared to 06z. 

Yea, SEA for example was supposed to be around 32 at this point I believe and they are still stuck at 30.

[WildrootParable]

Wait, winter is canceled again? Goshdarnit. 

Light snow still falling here, and we got about a half-inch of accumulation. Just enough to make things pretty. And it's holding stubbornly to 29 degrees. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Yeah warm nose coming in a tick farther north 

[LowerGarfield]

I'm in the Yellow!!!! So excited. I bet school won't be cancelled though. Surprised we're not under a Winter Storm Watch. Unless they didn't want to get people confused with the WWA ending in a few minutes.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Gotcha. How do these temps stack up historically?

Looks like easily records for the date.  -40s at Clinton and -50s at puntzi are getting up there historically. I’ll try to look a little deeper into later. 
 

it was probably very close to -40 at our cabin at Watch lake this morning 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow and not a good wow 

[tootthekazoo]

7 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

I live by Safeway on Kent Kangley, I'm sure we're pretty close. 

Checking in from just around the corner of Green River College

[Meatyorologist]

The Euro is already far, far too warm. These are temperatures depicted for 10am; right now. Yeesh...

It is clearly underestimating the strength of this airmass near the surface, and that could have larger implications for the low tonight. Though keep in mind these errors are a local scale feature and the low track depicted by the Euro is more likely than not spot on... But how fast the cold air is scoured, and how suppressed that low gets when it reaches the coast and interacts with outflow is highly modulated on the temperatures later on today.

[lowlandsnow]

Cold air comes back quicker though

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Yea, SEA for example was supposed to be around 32 at this point I believe and they are still stuck at 30.

Yeah. Today's 12z Euro indicates 34 at KSEA at 10 AM today, but it's actually 31. Winter is uncanceled. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Cold air comes back quicker though

Yep! Just noticed that. That might be all that matters. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Yeah warm nose coming in a tick farther north 

Is it a nose or a tongue that’s warm? I get confused. 

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

The Euro is already far, far too warm. These are temperatures depicted for 10am; right now. Yeesh...

It is clearly underestimating the strength of this airmass near the surface, and that could have larger implications for the low tonight. Though keep in mind these errors are a local scale feature and the low track depicted by the Euro is more likely than not spot on... But how fast the cold air is scoured, and how suppressed that low gets when it reaches the coast and interacts with outflow is highly modulated on the temperatures later on today.

It's pretty accurate for Seattle to Olympia but not for Seattle to Bellingham

[lowlandsnow]

WINTER IS UNCANCELLED!!!!!!

[Phishy Wx]

the old NWS cold icon showed up for Wednesday

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The Euro is already far, far too warm. These are temperatures depicted for 10am; right now. Yeesh...

It is clearly underestimating the strength of this airmass near the surface, and that could have larger implications for the low tonight. Though keep in mind these errors are a local scale feature and the low track depicted by the Euro is more likely than not spot on... But how fast the cold air is scoured, and how suppressed that low gets when it reaches the coast and interacts with outflow is highly modulated on the temperatures later on today.

So I’m supposed to be at about 30 according to that map. It’s 23.5 here. 

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow and not a good wow 

Say what now? 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow and not a good wow 

I'm not buying it.  Think this is scouring out the cold to easily

[yellowstone]

In the question of should we be using the Op or Ensembles at this range, Joe Z had a good thread on Twitter this morning with the probabilities of how far north the rain snow line would make it and expected snowfall and used only the Euro ensembles. Can’t discount the Op but we’ve always used ensembles to add context to the forecast. We shouldn’t stop now. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I'm not buying it.  Think this is scouring out the cold to easily

Euro is full of it. Rich Marriott hacked that frame. 

[Hawksfan2008]

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

It's pretty accurate for Seattle to Olympia but not for Seattle to Bellingham

"Pretty accurate" is a generous term here... Current obs show weak northerlies down past KSEA, whereas the Euro is depicting southerlies up to Everett, and well into the Strait. There is a wide swath of 5-10F errors over the central and northern Sound.

[Mid Valley Duck]

King County north event. 

[Art_Digbee]

Looks like winter is back on the menu!

[North_County]

12F with light snow falling.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF still shows the warm spike... and not sure the the current temp issues are pertinent.   

One interesting aspect is how fast its moving.   The precip is out of the Seattle area already by 1 or 2 p.m.    

And it clearly shows the arctic front sliding south overnight tomorrow night.

[Doinko]

 

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

"Pretty accurate" is a generous term here... Current obs show weak northerlies down past KSEA, whereas the Euro is depicting southerlies up to Everett, and well into the Strait. There is a wide swath of 5-10F errors over the central and northern Sound.

Yeah it looks a lot warmer for the Sound than it actually is. Down here PDX is already up to 40

[Front Ranger]

BLI down to 15.

[Gummy]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Isn't that actually better than the 00z for Seattle?

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

1st shade of purple. 

[Phishy Wx]

poor Euro.  Everyone loves the euro until everyone hates the euro

 

 

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Isn't that actually better than the 00z for Seattle?

Yep. Warm air retreats more quickly. 

[Cloud]

Lolwut? If you think a 1-2 degrees difference is no big deal, you’re wrong