jakerepp Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 So are we thinking Kuchera ratio might be more accurate given the current conditions? Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looks to be a very robust and intense convergence zone setting up in the central sound. I have had some pretty strong south winds today. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Skagit and Clallam counties are ground zero for tonight, per the RGEM. If I remember Randy's black dot on the map, I think he gets around 10 inches on this. That looks amazing! I would definitely be down for that, but don’t want the northward trend to continue. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looks to be a very robust and intense convergence zone setting up in the central sound. I have had some very gust and strong south winds today. Screen Shot 2020-01-14 at 11.18.55 AM.pngSee above. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Most def.I hate to say it, but as narrative crushing as it may be, there is a better than bad chance PDX scores it’s lowest daily mean of the winter so far tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 I hate to say it, but as narrative crushing as it may be, there is a better than bad chance PDX scores it’s lowest daily mean of the winter so far tomorrow.Yup. 26 will still be down there yelling “hello up there!!!” Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Only up to 32 back at home. Let's hope in 10 mins the 18z NAM shifts everything 70 miles south and buries everywhere from Olympia to Everett. (Sorry Skagit Weather, MossMan... It's a dog eat dog world out there.)It's going to move north to them no matter where it starts. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 I have religiously followed the weather models for the past 3 weeks for our potential January event. I won’t even get one snowflake in Tigard in the end. Oh well, I guess this is part of why snow events are so fun and exciting around here! Yeah it's pretty brutal. Mother nature should factor in how hard we've worked on model riding when deciding our snowfall fate. A good reminder that even if 95% of ECMWF ensemble members think it will snow at least 6 inches in PDX in 96 hours, you can end up with exactly 0 inches. Most models not named the GFS look real aggressive with the WAA for tomorrow. I think it could even just start as rain in many places. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Well... its in the 40s everywhere from Vanvcouver BC to Vancouver WA by late Thursday morning. So that is probably not snow if there is precip.40s seem doubtful in Vancouver Thursday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 I made it through the night topping out at 101.8 Nasty fever. Ended up with 1" here in the swamp. Pretty much it for this round of winter fun. This next load, based on eyeballing the satellite looks to be even further north than what is modeled. Someone up around Forks is going to score big time. Stick a fork in the south sound. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 40s seem doubtful in Vancouver Thursday We will see... a strong low and strong SE winds would do the trick. The ECMWF shows strong SE winds farther up the strait than just Vancouver. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Pretty !south winds gusting to 20 mph now34*27* dp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 We need that boundary to not get pushed too far north .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 I made it through the night topping out at 101.8 Nasty fever. Ended up with 1" here in the swamp. Pretty much it for this round of winter fun. This next load, based on eyeballing the satellite looks to be even further north than what is modeled. Someone up around Forks is going to score big time. Stick a fork in the south sound.Washing my forks currently One thing about the Flu, when you mend you feel like King of the World right after!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Moderately snowing currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Yup. 26 will still be down there yelling “hello up there!!!”It’ll be ok. The January progression sort of caught me off guard this year too. I figured if we managed some cold it would have been of the ridgierier variety like in November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Noob question: what (if anything) does this week/month's set up say about next month's weather? Is it possible to get another cold period before winter ends? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Noob question: what (if anything) does this week/month's set up say about next month's weather? Is it possible to get another cold period before winter ends? It could happen. However, GFS after about 6 days looks splitty. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Noob question: what (if anything) does this week/month's set up say about next month's weather? Is it possible to get another cold period before winter ends?yes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 It’ll be ok. The January progression sort of caught me off guard this year too. I figured if we managed some cold it would have been of the ridgierier variety like in November.Me too. Not exactly a dry side blockfest and the mountains look fairly healthy. Should keep some of the dramatic hand-wringing at least somewhat muted if things get warmer and drier later this year. One Tim is plenty! 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Real nice shower right now. Big flakes! Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Me too. Not exactly a dry side blockfest and the mountains look fairly healthy. Should keep some of the dramatic hand-wringing at least somewhat muted if things get warmer and drier later this year. One Tim is plenty!It’s been great to see ytd precip and snowpack slowly creep toward average. But that doesn’t mean you are off the hook from having to hear about the need for a hideously cool and wet spring. You know that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codyjack Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Yeah it's pretty brutal. Mother nature should factor in how hard we've worked on model riding when deciding our snowfall fate. A good reminder that even if 95% of ECMWF ensemble members think it will snow at least 6 inches in PDX in 96 hours, you can end up with exactly 0 inches. Most models not named the GFS look real aggressive with the WAA for tomorrow. I think it could even just start as rain in many places. This is the second year in a row where ensembles showed within 3-5 days incredibly high odds that we would end up with "significant snow" in the Portland area....and both times...skunked. I'm glad I didn't buy that snow shovel. Saving my money for my retirement condo in Flagstaff. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 GFS is really holding on, wow. Not a single other model shows even flurries for Portland tomorrow. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 As, most likely, the resident Dodgers fan here, it gives me little solice knowing the 2 WS opponents we faced were in all likelihood cheating. They may have the "*" now, but still keep their trophies.I’m a Yankees fan so I’m certainly biased, but there were so many “suspicious” swings from those two teams that you had to figure something was up before all this came out. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 It’s been great to see ytd precip and snowpack slowly creep toward average. But that doesn’t mean you are off the hook from having to hear about the need for a hideously cool and wet spring. You know that. Time will tell. I actually think this one will be pretty unsettled if we can manage a warmer February. We’re very dew. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tjb723 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 It's been lightly snowing in Silverdale for the past hour or two, small gentle flakes. Temp up to 30.7 now from a low of 27.3 overnight. Preparing to get buried tonight by another 4-7" as some models have shown, but I know how fickle these things can be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 I’m a Yankees fan so I’m certainly biased, but there were so many “suspicious” swings from those two teams that you had to figure something was up before all this came out.WTH is a suspicious swing? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Time will tell. I actually think this one will be pretty unsettled if we can manage a warmer February. We’re very dew.INNER MORAL CONFLICT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Sun is out here, Partly sunny and shooting for maybe 35 or 36 today. Swamp is looking great! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 The old adage that snow storms trend north has been accurate with his whole period of cold/snowy weather Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Screenshot 2020-01-14 at 11.46.36 AM.pngPDX Metro is certainly not 83% of average right now. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 The old adage that snow storms trend north has been accurate with his whole period of cold/snowy weather Pretty sure 2/24/19 and 4/7/19 proved it isn't always "trend north" or "trend south", it's "Screw Portland as hard as possible". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 INNER MORAL CONFLICTThat’s right, let it out. We’re here to help and you’re among trustworthy friends. Except Tim. And maybe that one other bro who’s always mad. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Perfect illustration of how this week has gone so far. That band has been sitting there for at least the past hour... 5 miles away from my house (mouse pointer). Five. Miles. I used to live in Maple Valley! Nice place, wasn't a fan of the winters though 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Pretty sure 2/24/19 and 4/7/19 proved it isn't always "trend north" or "trend south", it's "Screw Portland as hard as possible". We'll have our time someday. Not this year, but some other time. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Perfect illustration of how this week has gone so far. That band has been sitting there for at least the past hour... 5 miles away from my house (mouse pointer). Five. Miles. If it makes you feel any better, Seattle is currently in between two bands instead of under them. Perfect illustration of how this week has gone so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Getting some pretty major dumpage here in Everett the last 20-30 minutes from a popup shower. Looks like we picked up another half inch in that time to go along with the 1" from last night and 5.5" Sunday night. It's like a Winter Postcard out right now. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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