January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Gradient Keeper]

Even though the GEFS isn't great by any means, still -16c Moses Lake 850s. Just need east wind. The low level bitter air would flood through the Gorge into PDX Metro quickly.

[Jbolin]

It's gonna snow,

It's not gonna snow,

It's gonna get ice age cold,

It all looks marginal,

Lmao, after 20 years of model riding it just doesn't matter much to me anymore. Maybe it comes with age, maturity, years of relentless self imposed insanity but I just can't really care or get excited about this stuff anymore.

But to those of you fully immersed and invested, GO FOR IT! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z UKMET Friday 10am.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.

As nasty as the GEM looks at the 500mb level the run is incredible as far as observed weather.  Totally weird.

Whatcom county and SW BC would be below freezing for a week. 

[snow_wizard]

To say the least this is far from settled.  Really bizarre stuff on both models.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

If the GFS ends up being right all this time, I'm still not apologizing to it.

The gfs wasn't right it moved a huge amount back towards the euro. Everything is just meeting in the middle. There will still be snow and it will be cold.

[BLI snowman]

UKMET also looks to go the battle zone route. Nasty ice storm potential on Saturday....

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Modeled snow doesn't have a believable range.

In fact it does. 6 hours out. Or maybe 3 hours out on the short term models.

[SeanNyberg]

Let's hope this isn't the case for Oregon.  It's just mean. Like, straight up, F-ing mean. But much better for snow in Seattle.

[Cloud]

The GFS is like an annoying fly that may end up being right. A bit bothered by it. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

00z UKMET Friday 10am.

Figures.  We had lost that model for a couple of runs.  Me thinks this pattern is extremely complex and the models don't like it.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

UKMET also looks to go the battle zone route. Nasty ice storm potential on Saturday....

That's a real concern.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I have a sneaky feeling that Euro is about to cave to the GFS.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think it’s bizarre. It’s splitting a bit and losing momentum because the Pacific isn’t doing its part. The block phasing is fleeting at best. To get the vort max near the border at all with such paltry upstream support is what would be pretty bizarre.

Oh my, this might leave a scar.

[Weiner Warrior]

This is going to be a looong week.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS had quite a bit of snow too.  The details are just insanely lacking right now.

[Perturbed Member]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

For how much we bash it, the GFS could come out of this looking like the smartest model in the room. It dumped the mega-cold solution a few days ago, and has since held relatively steady.

Yeah, for all the GFS mocking that has been done, the bastard has held its own against all the other models and has been the first to pick up on certain features that later showed up on the others.  

The GraphCast and its whitepaper that claims total superiority over all other numerical prediction models is going to look a bit silly if this completely fizzles. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Friday 10 PM East wind doing its thing pulling very cold bitter air westward through the Gorge quickly.

[Slushy Inch]

Gfs is a great snow outcome for western WA. This system is going to dump on someone. Trending north.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Figures.  We had lost that model for a couple of runs.  Me thinks this pattern is extremely complex and the models don't like it.

Snow comes in on Saturday with temps in the low 20s.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The big loser if this falls apart will be the Graph Cast.  It has never wavered on this.  Not once.

[westcoastexpat]

18Z GFS ensembles 

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The big loser if this falls apart will be the Graph Cast.  It has never wavered on this.  Not once.

Spire too. Both have been very adamant that we are getting something.

[Christensen87]

13 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

If the GFS ends up being right all this time, I'm still not apologizing to it.

This is why I haven’t gotten onboard fully yet. GFS/CFS have been the most realistic solutions. Time for Euro, let’s see what happens. 

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Even though the GEFS isn't great by any means, still -16c Moses Lake 850s. Just need east wind. The low level bitter air would flood through the Gorge into PDX Metro quickly.

Funny thing is it keeps getting pushed to, “ it’s over the ocean, then it’s we all do it, then it’s we all share the same lotion”. Is what it is. El Niño. We’re lucky to get this far. 

[Requiem]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

This is why I haven’t gotten onboard fully yet. GFS/CFS have been the most realistic solutions. Time for Euro, let’s see what happens. 

CFS sneaking in there like 

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

the freakin JMA of all things was the first (at least of what I noticed) to sniff an east slide off back on Thursday evening.  if that actually plays out, dang

Today's run was decent though.

[Blizzard777]

One thing is for sure. 
This is all part of the fun and things are about to go down starting with a nice windstorm !  Buckle up and let go of the handrails lol! All the variables are in place or at least near by. Been through this final walk into the action many times before. 
I’m definitely hopeful that we have some very fun days ahead!!! 


 

[Randyc321]

43 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol 

@Kolk1604

Can you post a dp and precip map for 10am Saturday?  Thanks dude.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Oh my, this might leave a scar.

Bring a DD if you’re headed to the bar.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Today's run was decent though.

it came back some yes, but It sniffed the first hints of the climatologically east favored slide off

[Meatyorologist]

Euro of all things will probably stay the same. None of these solutions are that far off from the EPS, save for the GFS.

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have a sneaky feeling that Euro is about to cave to the GFS.

Does it take the air out of the contrarianism when the thought isn’t really that contrary to what the majority is already thinking? 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

00Z GFS ensembles 

Still very decent with the mean 850s dropping to around -10.

[Tanis Leach]

18 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I just feel bad for all the central valley folks, at least Portland Seattle and Eugene have had some good events the past few years 

Salem's last good event was Feb 2014.

 

They also average the least snowfall in the Valley of the 50k plus cities. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Euro of all things will probably stay the same. None of these solutions are that far off from the EPS, save for the GFS.

If it does, it will have more assistance on the Pacific side. Just need that block to hold a bit better.

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have a sneaky feeling that Euro is about to cave to the GFS.

It might make an adjustment in a bad direction, but I think we should give it some credit, it will probably stick to its guns more than it will adjust. Not for any wishcasting reasons, just because it's a sturdy, reliable model, and it has a track record of stabilizing in this timeframe.

[SpaceRace22]

FWIW, the AIFS (the other AI model with a similar skill score to GraphCast) was also still very much a top tier event on its 12z run today. I am definitely going to wait for the Euro and the the AI models to come in tonight before totally giving up on this.

 

[MV_snow]

Crazy how fast the GFS run fell apart. It started by everyone saying it looked similar to the 18z Euro, then fell apart in one day. Not giving up on region wide cold until the KING blinks.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Euro of all things will probably stay the same. None of these solutions are that far off from the EPS, save for the GFS.

I think so too.  If the Graph Cast caves then I'll be really worried.  This could all just be noise.