January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[westcoastexpat]

Yesterday's 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean compared to today's.

[Olive1010]

Anyone have free online meteograms?

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Control is good for Oregon

Thanks! What are temps like with the snow?

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane liking the sub zero chances:

 

There is still some uncertainty regarding just how cold it will get 
for us since we fall right along the western edge of the area into 
which this arctic airmass is expected to move. Small changes in the 
track of the airmass could have a large impact on the temperatures 
we end up experiencing. However, confidence is increasing that we 
will see widespread temperatures below zero. Ensembles have been 
trending colder over the past few runs. "Warmer" ensemble members 
are now predicting highs in the single digits to low teens and lows 
near zero, while colder members show highs a few degrees below zero 
and lows dipping into the negative teens. Damage to pipes will be 
possible, so now is the time to make sure your home is fully 
winterized. People and pets outside for extended periods of time or 
without proper clothing will be at risk for frostbite and 
hypothermia.

[Skagit Weather]

Went up Squak Mountain this morning. Snow started at 1,500’ and there was 3” at the summit. Certainly why we’re not seeing any sea level snow on the east side of Puget Sound

[TT-SEA]

Control run on board for Portland snow.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Control run on board for Portland snow.

That is depressing for SEA

[Mid Valley Duck]

6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah I am hoping the upper levels will hold on better than modeled. We don't need that kind of ice damage again in the valley...

Key feature will be the secondary surface low that races ahead of the parent low. Further development or change in orientation could change the results dramatically. On the Euro it isnt a huge or torching warm layer above. 

 

[Cold Snap]

As of now this looks like it’s going to be pretty good for the Portland area! Probably not so snowy for the Puget sound area and probably just cold and dry but at least someone will score.

[Phishy Wx]

round one has commenced. light snow. 28

bummer this first round will be wiped out by rain and wind tomorrow

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah I am hoping the upper levels will hold on better than modeled. We don't need that kind of ice damage again in the valley...

12z EURO for Saturday morning has PDX at 21 with cold east winds and lots of precipitation overhead but there is a warm tongue showing. Need that to go away in future runs. Still time for that to happen though.

[Andstorm]

The 12z GFS meteograms for portland are still pretty impressive. four consecutive days beginning late  Friday where ensemble mean temp fails to get to freezing. That would be extremely noteworthy if it wasn’t for the stupidly cold signals in earlier runs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Overall deeper cold further south is better for everyone in the region. 

1000% 

[Ziess]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z EURO for Saturday morning has PDX at 21 with cold east winds and lots of precipitation overhead but there is a warm tongue showing. Need that to go away in future runs. Still time for that to happen though.

Eww, that warm tongue basically ends at my driveway.

[Front Ranger]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hasn’t been the Euro’s finest hour. Canceling anyone over it won’t change it. 

The "gold standard" model. Which was supported by the new AI model that was supposed to be the NEW gold standard.

We have a long ways to go with modeling...may never be reliably accurate beyond a few days in these scenarios.

[Andstorm]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z EURO for Saturday morning has PDX at 21 with cold east winds and lots of precipitation overhead but there is a warm tongue showing. Need that to go away in future runs. Still time for that to happen though.

Models always accelerate the cold air displacement. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

The "gold standard" model. Which was supported by the new AI model that was supposed to be the NEW gold standard.

We have a long ways to go with modeling...may never be reliably accurate beyond a few days in these scenarios.

the atmosphere doesn't give AF what our computers think

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

The "gold standard" model. Which was supported by the new AI model that was supposed to be the NEW gold standard.

We have a long ways to go with modeling...may never be reliably accurate beyond a few days in these scenarios.

I love how we keep pouring our expectations into a model (Euro) that had the entire region in the deep freezer (low teens) just a day or two ago, but now we're looking at many of those places sitting at or above freezing. Euro is struggling with this event.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 10... probably quite good at prolonging the low level cold.    Less jet influence than the 00Z  run.

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GEM, UKMET, and ICON show great events for Portland, hoping those win out. I wonder what the ensembles will be like for this system

Yeah the potential for a big snowstorm or winter storm of some kind is very much there but we still have a few days to go for this and we can't really afford for this to trend any further north if we want decent snow. The Euro has shifted things 100s of miles north in the past 18 hours alone. 

The cold and suppressed team is giving up a lot of ground and there is still a bit more time to go. These systems are more likely to come in further north than south. Good for the folks further north but it will probably be at our expense. It is also possible though that we have mostly come into model consensus and there won't be as many big shifts from here on out. 

For now I will pretend that this current forecast for Portland is what we will get

 

[Sandy rocks]

The trees in Troutdale do look weird. Branches often only grow on one side because of the wind. The positive thing about Troutdale is that all the power lines are underground. I lived in Troutdale for seven years in the early 90's and only lost power one time for about two hours. In Sandy, we often lose power since things here are above ground.

[KingstonWX]

8 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

That is depressing for SEA

But also right on brand. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Ziess said:

Eww, that warm tongue basically ends at my driveway.

Don't worry it gets pushed south later on, so even you can enjoy some nice thick freezing rain. 

[Randyc321]

10 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

That is depressing for SEA

Patience man.  We are sitting pretty good right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've always defended the GFS. 

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t there another SSW event that could happen soon? 

The Euro has legit SSW D10, but the GFS is less enthusiastic.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Models always accelerate the cold air displacement. 

For sure! I remember January 2004 like it was yesterday.

[Chewbacca Defense]

34 degrees here, it was at/below freezing most of the morning.  Haven't seen snow IMBY yet, but definite "positive splats" when I took the dog out earlier.  I think large portions of Whatcom County have seen snow in the air and/or at least a dusting on the ground. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

For sure! I remember January 2004 like it was yesterday.

Yeah, does anyone think this could turn more into a January 2004 than a 1998? That was a bit more regional so to speak. 

Also what do folks think about the 1980 analog? That one wasn't great for folks south of PDX, but there was a big arctic blast late in the month, that one was dry, but it would be cool to get another crack at it in a few weeks. 

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Went up Squak Mountain this morning. Snow started at 1,500’ and there was 3” at the summit. Certainly why we’re not seeing any sea level snow on the east side of Puget Sound

Right at the snow line here at 500Ft. There’s no Snow just to the east and I drove up Timber ridge drive just to my west(~650ft) and it was a winter wonderland. 1-2” with light to moderate snow falling. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Good to see Andrew back. Hope you've been well my man.

[Prairiedog]

1 hour ago, Sandy rocks said:

Boy it sure isn't very warm today. My phone said it was supposed to be 59 but it is only 37. Temperature is going down instead of up this morning.

Yea, that's pretty goofed up on whatever app you saw that on.  Temps through out our area have been ranging between 39-41f.  Highs never were progged to be much over the upper 40's before it starts to cool tonight.  I was 39 most of the morning but up to 41 currently at 315 ft. 

[Prairiedog]

52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is great, low level cool/cold air and many days with negative temp anomalies, Only the GFS is not showing this!!!

Obviously that means there's still a lot of cold air in the C Basin.  I thought that was not going to stay there that long.  That would be good for more overriding precip as long as it's NOT ice. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Wet snow falling at home. Not accumulating but beautiful as always.

[Perturbed Member]

25 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Key feature will be the secondary surface low that races ahead of the parent low. Further development or change in orientation could change the results dramatically. On the Euro it isnt a huge or torching warm layer above. 

 

Yeah I guess the warming aloft on the Euro looks fairly modest and probably manageable as it is shown on the 12z. My concern is more about a continued northward trend. Another notch or two further north and that cross section looks much uglier. 

Hopefully no more drastic changes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah I guess the warming aloft on the Euro looks fairly modest and probably manageable as it is shown on the 12z. My concern is more about a continued northward trend. Another notch or two further north and that cross section looks much uglier. 

Hopefully no more drastic changes.

There is always hope, albeit unlikely, that things could suppress slightly further south. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

34 degrees here, it was at/below freezing most of the morning.  Haven't seen snow IMBY yet, but definite "positive splats" when I took the dog out earlier.  I think large portions of Whatcom County have seen snow in the air and/or at least a dusting on the ground. 

Bellingham Airport was reporting snow earlier this morning.

[The Blob]

35 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

I got to enjoy living there 5 years at the mouth of the gully!  Fantastic weather extremes ! Glad I experienced it 

lol, found out it was useless to plant trees 

My work is literally down the street. It's great for emailing HR that I can't get out of my driveway and get to work.

[Prairiedog]

43 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Bring it Gorge! We are ready to get Blasted!!!

 

 

I'm exactly 16 miles south of that spot and it's like a different world.  I will be under a warm nose with southerlies most of the time except for Feb '21.  The mouth of the Gorge is like entering the Arctic Kill Zone sometimes.