snowstorm83 Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 NAM has an initial wave of snow during the day Tuesday but retreats north pretty quickly. Difference is that temps stay below freezing throughout the evening for I-80 folks. I'm thinking this is another GFS thermal fail at least. Edit: Looks good for the northern half of Iowa though. I-80 is kind of the riding the ice/snow line it looks. Long range NAM we're talking about though. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 I do not envy the folks at the NWS or WPC in the slightest at this moment 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 Might be the earliest I seen Hastings put something out.... then consider the uncertainty with the models. I would take it though and run! https://www.weather.gov/media/gid/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 NWS Omaha Quote Models continue to show a potentially significant system arriving to the area Monday night through Wednesday, with slight differences in placement of the primary axis of precipitation in our area. The primary variable so far with this system continues to be the lower-level temperature fields, with the GFS continuing to be the warmest (and most progressive) solution, while the NAM, ECMWF, and CMC being in general agreement with a cooler setup. This colder blend of solutions continues to be the primary forecast guidance that we have hedged closer to due to the better agreement. Ensemble guidance does show quite a bit of wiggle room in terms of the rain/snow/mix line, so much will be remaining to be seen as far as the specifics go. With that being said, ensemble solutions continue to show an axis of significant snowfall at somewhere in northeast Nebraska into western Iowa, the placement will continue to shift as we get closer to the event. WPC snowfall probabilities show snowfall of 8 inches or more being greater than 50 percent for northeastern Nebraska into western Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 FGF with another clutch 3 sentence AFD! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 18z gfs remains north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 24 minutes ago, gabel23 said: Might be the earliest I seen Hastings put something out.... then consider the uncertainty with the models. I would take it though and run! https://www.weather.gov/media/gid/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf Nothing from OAX so far but looking at the state view on the GID it looks like 6-8" along and north of I-80 for the OAX region. Pretty bold since Euro is down to 7-10" and GFS is rain. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 Gfs looks north some more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: That'd break the matrix.. Interesting! 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 GFSv16 has that secondary low dropping huge snow totals across MO IA and others again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 This looks like an old-fashion GOM track. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 So much spread 3 days out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 This looks interesting...Gulf Low in the works??? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 18z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Tom said: 18z GEFS... The good old Kansas City to Chicago dry slot so fitting for this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted December 26, 2020 Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 From grand rapids NWS office: bolded explains why this is so uncertain -- A range of impacts possible with a messy system Wed-Fri -- We are looking at an extended period of unsettled weather from Wednesday through Friday, with a good deal of uncertainty with regard to details at this time. There is good agreement amongst the models and their ensembles that a fairly strong low will be taking shape to our SW as the southern and northern branches of the jet stream phase over the Plains. It looks likely that we will see a burst of some snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as the warm front moves through. Then, we will see additional precipitation ahead of the system move in later on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This looks like it could transition through a wintry mix before changing all to rain as enough warm air moves overhead. The exact timing of this is still in question. The uncertainty begins on Thursday once the initial low and precipitation moves through. The uncertainty exists as a result of the eastern progress of the front, and additional energy that will eventually ride up along the front. The final answer will be the result of multiple pieces of upper energy that eventually dictate the formation of the low, and the movement of the parts of it. There is no way at this time to pin down the details for Thursday and Friday with multiple pieces of energy, that are all over the Pacific Ocean and Arctic, that will all interact with each other. The general possibilities are that we could end up on the front side of the system, and have quite a bit more rain and develop some hydro issues. If the system is more progressive east, but close enough to affect us, we could see some accumulating snow. We could even end up out of the main precipitation. Wind also could be a factor. It is something that bears watching, as different significant impacts will be possible with this energetic system. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 18z Euro. No shift south. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Time to throw in the towel for I 80 S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 I already have heavy snow wording in the grids for Tuesday. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Now they’ve taken out snow accumulation from our forecast and replaced it with rain/snow/freezing rain with 0.50-0.75” of precipitation. Just unbelievable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 12z parallel euro 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: I already have heavy snow wording in the grids for Tuesday. I saw that. Also no mention of rain or ice in the grids. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 18z Euro Control looks just like the GFS v16. I will post maps shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 18z Euro control at hr144 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro Control looks just like the GFS v16. I will post maps shortly. Alot different for nebraska folks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 18z Euro Mean and ensembles. Remember only goes 144 hrs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Alot different for nebraska folks And a nice dry slot over southeast Nebraska. Seems about right and how the last 4-5 big storms forecasted for here have went. I’ve just about wrote this one off for here. North trend seems to be the way to go. Valley also sounded like they are leaning that way as well. Watching Bill Rector on 10/11 tonight he seems to think NE Nebraska is going to be the hardest hit of the state Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, centralweather44 said: And a nice dry slot over southeast Nebraska. Seems about right and how the last 4-5 big storms forecasted for here have went. I’ve just about wrote this one off for here. North trend seems to be the way to go. Valley also sounded like they are leaning that way as well. Watching Bill Rector on 10/11 tonight he seems to think NE Nebraska is going to be the hardest hit of the state Even if we get some front end snow, rain looks to come up from the south and wash a lot or all of it away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 12z Euro sure had a bunch of qpf for SWMI with a 980's SLP riding up into SEMI. Just need more cold air to get more SN vs RN. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 I know this is a long range model. But the CFS shows substantial snow depth over eastern Iowa. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 I have a gut feeling of a stronger southern low and further south/east solution. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 We can all have a dream at one point,right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 I hope we have better clarity in the Dec 28 00z and 12z runs with the energy coming on shore tomorrow evening looks like. Maybe just more model chaos until then. @Tom or @Clinton may be able to speak to this better, but looking back at the LRC it seemed there was support for the initial northern wave but nothing really for a strong southern wave (roughly Nov 13-15). I dunno...just looking for clues to pass the time...lol Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 0z NAM has the low going almost overhead. LOL! Fargo gets his snow too. Looks good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Meanwhile 18z GDPS is so far south it hits northern Missouri with snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Not much better than the 18z NAM for my area and places south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 18z RDPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFanOMA Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: Not much better than the 18z NAM for my area and places south. I'm going with this will be a bust for nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 NAM has nothing but sleet and freezing rain lifting northeast through the CR/IC area. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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