AbbyJr Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: I am certainly no expert. Just voicing my opinion. I’m sure the SSW does affect weather patterns, it just may not be clear to us yet how it will affect things. Who are you talking to? Someone on Twitter, a public figure? A weather enthusiast. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Hey look! It ends with Nina climo. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Struggling with incessant rain/darkness is the PNW tradition of all traditions! This forum is no exception. Some struggle more early on, when the darkness kicks and you have to adjust. Others struggle most when the rain really kicks into gear (past couple weeks and continuing for the next couple months) and there is no hope in sight (no snow, no sun). And then there are those who struggle most when it just won't stop but you feel like it should by now (May and June)… that's more my style. I think it's what bonds all west of the Cascade PNWers. Good times! Jesse is going to ** you up for this post. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 On the komo site "The widespread, steady rain of this morning will eventually break apart to gusty showers this afternoon as a cold front departs off to the east. A few (non-severe) thundershowers capable of lightning and small hail are possible this afternoon, especially from Hood Canal west toward the coast. Some hi-res models are showing an isolated thunder potential in Puget Sound around 4-5 PM. A developing convergence zone over Snohomish County may also produce steady rain/small hail translating to heavy snow along HWY 2 tonight. Interesting. https://komonews.com/weather 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Jesse is going to ** you up for this post. The only complaining allowed is for what the forum police deems worthy of complaints. Jesse has a list... follow it closely or pay the price. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Looks like Mark added a nice new radar link on his weather links site. Not at all a fan of the new NWS radar set up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Looks like our daily burst in the low to mid 50s with SSW winds has commenced this afternoon. Can’t wait until we see the GOOD kind of SSW winds in a few weeks! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Looks like our daily burst in the low to mid 50s with SSW winds has commenced this afternoon. Can’t wait until we see the GOOD kind of SSW winds in a few weeks! See above... that is something he deems complaint worthy. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Up to .97” so far on the day. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: I doubt it. We seem to share a lot of the same perspectives on PNW weather. I'll gladly partake in some rainy walks as long as the mountain snowpack is thriving. Whoah there, you’re not hating me nearly hard enough! 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 41 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Go February or go home. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 40 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Struggling with incessant rain/darkness is the PNW tradition of all traditions! This forum is no exception. Some struggle more early on, when the darkness kicks and you have to adjust. Others struggle most when the rain really kicks into gear (past couple weeks and continuing for the next couple months) and there is no hope in sight (no snow, no sun). And then there are those who struggle most when it just won't stop but you feel like it should by now (May and June)… that's more my style. I think it's what bonds all west of the Cascade PNWers. Good times! Hasn't been a problem down here. Sun is coming out again right now with lots of blue sky to the west. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Timberline Lodge now up to 95" base. Can we break triple digits today??? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just loaded up on 2 tons of alfalfa. Banking on some backloaded action and limited forage for the livestock through March. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 One run aberration. Don't get too hopeful. Beware the rug-pull. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 More improvements on 12z Ensembles suite. A long ways to go of course, but the retrogression signal, retraction of NPAC/WPAC jet, Aleutian low dying, and timing is similar with GEFS, CMCE, EPS. Onto 00z! C'MON!!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: This was from Thursday. Today’s run has not come out yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: This was from Thursday. Today’s run has not come out yet. Valentine's Day??? C'mon!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 He sure is a cute little guy . . . Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, MossMan said: I think they might be mistaken. Probably another east coast bias grumpy pants that doesn’t want to share the cold with the PNW. However the other east coaster named Phil could probably give more info on your question. Lol, the East often gets screwed in -ENSO SSW events. Usually the pattern that *produces* the SSW favors the East, but once the PV is gone the cold quickly shifts to the west. The -ENSO SSW events in 2017/18, 2008/09, 1998/99, 1988/89, 1984/85, etc, all favored the west afterwards, with the eastern cold occurring before/during the event. Only 2005/06 and 2012/13 favored the East, and those were weak -ENSO. Barely met Niña threshold. This is a much stronger event with a more stable low pass signal. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, MossMan said: Still pouring here like it has been doing all morning. Just stopped here. Power was out for an hour and a half. .44" today so far. 43.6 temp after a low of 43.4! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: This was from Thursday. Today’s run has not come out yet. Actually it has been out for awhile, but I clicked on the wrong date. Thanks for pointing that out, I appreciate it! Here is todays: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 hours ago, luvssnow_seattle said: We are smack dab in the middle of the valley close to the mall. There has been one freezing fog event that really impacted just north of us, up in the green bluff area (about 15min from where I am). We drove up there to visit a farm, and everything was shimmering white as it was coated. It was one of the most beautiful things I have experienced. Rolling farm land with surrounded by mountains in a coating of frozen white. It was spectacular, it looked like a picture out of a December Calendar. I will do better to snap some pictures and share in the future. I just do not want to be one of those that is like "Neener, neener, look at all the snow I get" lol! So, I want to be careful and not come across as gloating. That being said, I am loving it here, and the panic of getting or NOT getting snow is gone. As it is a more regular thing here. YES!!! 1. The location in your profile still says Bonney Lake. Perhaps an update is in order? 2. This is a Pacific Northwest weather forum. Spokane is in the Pacific Northwest. As such, updates on Spokane weather are completely on topic. If that makes others find it distressing to hear how frequently you report snowfalls, that is their issue, not yours. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 37 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Its starting to look and feel like a 1975-1977 repeat here in Norcal. Nothing on the horizon as we will probably have to wait until Feb for a pattern reset now. 4th year in a row now where winter doesn't start until Feb or March. This new normal sucks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 42 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Hasn't been a problem down here. Sun is coming out again right now with lots of blue sky to the west. Fairly overcast with showers here still. Sounds like you are getting some coast range shadowing out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: Its starting to look and feel like a 1975-1977 repeat here in Norcal. Nothing on the horizon as we will probably have to wait until Feb for a pattern reset now. 4th year in a row now where winter doesn't start until Feb or March. This new normal sucks. I remember those winters in the mountains of New Mexico. With the exception of November 1976 (which is really late autumn, not winter), they sucked. All the other kids were talking about how much more snow usually fell in winters and I felt gypped because the sucky winters began right as my family moved into town. Then came the winter of 1978-1979 and all was right with the world again… Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, FroYoBro said: #1: I think you are a little too focused on the SSW. We have gotten cold/snow here without one and have been in bad patterns in years after a SSW occurring. #2: This isn’t a completely figured out science yet. Atmospheric predictions like these are still pretty new compared to other scientific areas. I personally think long term forecasting is still pretty inaccurate and silly at times. There are still new theories/studies all of the time, so there isn’t going to be one consensus with all experts. #3: wait. You’re correct a SSW isn’t necessary for the west to score. Recent examples include December 1990, February 2011, etc. Common theme is westerly equatorial u-wind anoms descending thru 50mb and an Indo-Pacific element to low/medium pass tropical forcing (IE: Niña/+QBO at maturity or maturing). But there are cases (like this winter) where antecedent boundary conditions aren’t clear cut/competing signals exist, often in IO domain. In which case a SSW can/often does arise, possibly to “reset” that disconnect (perhaps it arises thru it). And this can return cold to the places it would otherwise be climatologically favored to go. Or..if that fails too, you can get a 1975/76 or 1999/00 outcome. Which we seem to be avoiding this time around. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I remember those winters in the mountains of New Mexico. With the exception of November 1976 (which is really late autumn, not winter), they sucked. All the other kids were talking about how much more snow usually fell in winters and I felt gypped because the sucky winters began right as my family moved into town. Then came the winter of 1978-1979 and all was right with the world again… Most of California just had either their first or second driest Calendar year on record. So now the direst calendar years are 2013, 2020, 1976 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just got home and was able to review the stats for December. Finished +2.5 and almost an inch above normal rainfall at 6.87”. Finished 2020 with 44.22” of rain. Already at 3.20” for 2021. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Latest weeklies look pretty d*mn good to me. Quicker to retrogress the ridge and stronger with the signal as well vs. last week's run. I wonder what surface temps that would be. I'll take lows in the teens and sub-freezing highs please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: You’re correct a SSW isn’t necessary for the west to score. Recent examples include December 1990, February 2011, etc. Common theme is westerly equatorial u-wind anoms descending thru 50mb and an Indo-Pacific element to low/medium pass tropical forcing (IE: Niña/+QBO at maturity or maturing). But there are cases (like this winter) where antecedent boundary conditions aren’t clear cut/competing signals exist, often in IO domain. In which case a SSW can/often does arise, possibly to “reset” that disconnect (perhaps it arises thru it). And this can return cold to the places it would otherwise be climatologically favored to go. Or..if that fails too, you can get a 1975/76 or 1999/00 outcome. Which we seem to be avoiding this time around. 2017-2018 Tahoe on was on pace to have the least snowy winter every recorded (2014-2015). Then the SSW happened and we picked up 102" in March which saved the year. 2018-2019 we were at 50% of normal snowfall going into Feb. That SSW gave us 140" in Feb and saved the winter. Hopefully this years does the same as we will be down near 30% of normal when this Jan ends 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Struggling with incessant rain/darkness is the PNW tradition of all traditions! This forum is no exception. Some struggle more early on, when the darkness kicks and you have to adjust. Others struggle most when the rain really kicks into gear (past couple weeks and continuing for the next couple months) and there is no hope in sight (no snow, no sun). And then there are those who struggle most when it just won't stop but you feel like it should by now (May and June)… that's more my style. I think it's what bonds all west of the Cascade PNWers. Good times! I was glad to head down to Texas for a couple weeks during our really cloudy wet period. Got plenty of sunshine down there. Now that I’m back im ready for the clouds and rain again! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: 2017-2018 Tahoe on was on pace to have the least snowy winter every recorded (2014-2015). Then the SSW happened and we picked up 102" in March which saved the year. 2018-2019 we were at 50% of normal snowfall going into Feb. That SSW gave us 140" in Feb and saved the winter. Hopefully this years does the same as we will be down near 30% of normal when this Jan ends I suspect we’ll follow the same general progression this year. Perhaps moved up a week or two? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 18z GFS going places perhaps. Day 8.5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: I suspect we’ll follow the same general progression this year. Perhaps moved up a week or two? It feels like from 2011 till now we have lost the first 3rd of our winters. Record warmth now hangs on till early Nov and the Pacific ridge stays in summer block mode till Feb or March. Our rainy season is normally Late Nov till early April so losing Nov, Dec, Jan this decade sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GFS going places perhaps. Day 8.5 Ehhhh let’s see. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 1. The location in your profile still says Bonney Lake. Perhaps an update is in order? 2. This is a Pacific Northwest weather forum. Spokane is in the Pacific Northwest. As such, updates on Spokane weather are completely on topic. If that makes others find it distressing to hear how frequently you report snowfalls, that is their issue, not yours. I'd love to see more posts and updates from the Spokane area. Living vicariously through them and considering making the 5 hour drive over there to see some urban snow landscapes is an annual tradition just as much as westside winter cancellations and reschedulings. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Pepto pink is back within 300 hours! It’s 1,800 miles away but it’s BACK!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, BLI snowman said: I'd love to see more posts and updates from the Spokane area. Living vicariously through them and considering making the 5 hour drive over there to see some urban snow landscapes is an annual tradition just as much as westside winter cancellations and reschedulings. If I ever leave Tahoe Spokane is on my list, or areas close to Mt Spokane towards Schweitzer. It's amazing how cheap homes are in those area's. I know people are flooding into that region so I doubt it stays cheap for much longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, Phil said: I suspect we’ll follow the same general progression this year. Perhaps moved up a week or two? So are you thinking the last week of January is when we could see a cold and snowy pattern develop in the PNW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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