MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Sunday is warmer on this run... as everything is moving faster. Upper 30s in Seattle that day... but then the flow switches to offshore again ahead of next system which dumps more snow on Sunday night. That is a true transition event though. By Monday it shows strong south winds through the entire Sound and temps into the 40s. Still... Seattle will be basically shut down from Thursday-Monday. Pretty incredible. This might be more memorable for the immediate Seattle area than 2019. If this happens as shown there will be 3 feet again around the canal. Just insane and the same day almost! 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: I was thinking the same thing. Down here, we go our snow in spurts. This would be all at once I figured this snow event would be done by early next week even a few days ago...which is honestly fine don’t want it going on forever still got to work. Would still be a pretty epic stretch for western WA Thursday-Sunday. Generally our best events only last a couple or a few days...February 2019 was a rare long term event. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Interesting weekend ahead. I sure like the GFS but I believe the Euro is truly the king. I'm gonna love watching the snow falling. That's the best part for me. Hoping the Portland area gets a bunch before the warmup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Also, we get another storm Sunday. If that could trend south and we could pull in some cold air from the north, that could be legendary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS 12z City Charts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Going to get my gas and perhaps a nice bike ride through Point Defiance on this lovely day Could be a pretty epic weekend coming here in the south sound! 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: The Canadians think everything will hit them. It could show a storm hitting LA and they would say, "it's trending north!!!!!!Be prepared!!!!!" lol We have a mole. . Little chance that first system does much of anything north of Bellingham 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: Be fun to forecast this based on the Euro alone and, assuming no more warming trends, know that the low being 50-100 miles off busts you bad one way or the other and makes you look like an ******* to the whole city Imagine how boring (and accurate) it would be to look at two model runs per day. Life without the NAMGEMRPMGFSPARAGFSPUKEMETNAVGEMHRRRRRRRR is not worth living. 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Looks like last bit of snow falls Sunday night. Here's 4PM Sunday - 4AM Monday as well as Kuchera total snowfall ending at that same time. Honestly, that is about as good as a run can get. Nobody from Portland up to the BC coast well north of Vancouver should be disappointed if that verifies, and it would be truly epic for the South Sound. Frosty gets something in return for waiting 700+ days. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: We have a mole. . Little chance that first system does much of anything north of Bellingham I'm thinking even if the precipitation shield extends towards the duncan area as I think it might, it will not be heavy enough to overcome the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just gonna make up for 2 months of poor winter in one go. Kinda insane this is very reminiscent of 2019. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Imagine how boring (and accurate) it would be to look at two model runs for per day. Life without the NAMGEMRPMGFSPARAGFSPUKEMETNAVGEMHRRRRRRRR is not worth living. hey I need to spend the ENTIRE day looking at model runs so I can tell my friends that between 0-11" of snow is possible sometime between Thu-Sun 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Could be a pretty epic weekend coming here in the south sound! We are deserving for all the times we have been shadowed or had to deal with south winds creating a nice CZ for northern Washingtonians 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 So looks like Portland could be in for quite a messy system. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 i guess my oly lotto ticket may hit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Just gonna make up for 2 months of poor winter in one go. Kinda insane this is very reminiscent of 2019. Literally feels like we just went back to 2019. Could end up with pretty similar results....just not quite as spread out over 10 days it all happens in like 4 days instead. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Even through next week temps at SeaTac are looking pretty good. What snow we get is likely to stick around for a little while longer, and if there's any adjustment down there's a shot later in the week it seems for a bit more powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Benjamin Jurkovich @BenjaminJurkovi · 29m 1) Here is the arctic airmass currently in the Fraser Plateau of BC compared to the ones @ the onset of the Jan 2020 and Feb 2019 cold spells. The 2019 and 2020 graphics were the day of the first event. Case in point, arctic air is building sooner and deeper this go around. #wawx Benjamin Jurkovich 2) By sooner, I mean in relation to the "event." Keep in mind however that each one of these events was different and will not play out exactly the same. I am optimistic though seeing the deeper cold air begin to pool against the southern mountains of BC at this point in the game 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: I'm thinking even if the precipitation shield extends towards the duncan area as I think it might, it will not be heavy enough to overcome the dry air. I like an inch or two for Victoria with that first system at this point. Also be watching for surface low development off Vancouver island once that sub -10C 850mb air starts streaming out over the ocean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: I like an inch or two for Victoria with that first system at this point. Also be watching for surface low development off Vancouver island once that sub -10C 850mb air starts streaming out over the ocean. Yea they tend pop up around neah bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: Yea they tend pop up around neah bay Sometimes off the northern tip of vancouver island too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: hey I need to spend the ENTIRE day looking at model runs so I can tell my friends that between 0-11" of snow is possible sometime between Thu-Sun Tossing out the UKMET? Shrewd, veteran move... My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Esquimalt said: Sometimes off the northern tip of vancouver island too. Yup! Would not be surprised! Up north is positioned to do well Sunday night!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro has already begun underestimating the arctic air. Here's the last three runs at what was initialization (4am) this morning. Today Last night's euro Yesterday's 12z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, SalemDuck said: Euro has already begun underestimating the arctic air. Here's the last three runs at what was initialization (4am) this morning. Today Last night's euro Yesterday's 12z Wouldn't that shove the snowstorms a bit more south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 54 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: 10 am Thursday and the snow has started. I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Benjamin Jurkovich @BenjaminJurkovi · 29m 1) Here is the arctic airmass currently in the Fraser Plateau of BC compared to the ones @ the onset of the Jan 2020 and Feb 2019 cold spells. The 2019 and 2020 graphics were the day of the first event. Case in point, arctic air is building sooner and deeper this go around. #wawx Benjamin Jurkovich 2) By sooner, I mean in relation to the "event." Keep in mind however that each one of these events was different and will not play out exactly the same. I am optimistic though seeing the deeper cold air begin to pool against the southern mountains of BC at this point in the game -37F at Clinton this morning. That’s a little milder than last January but a touch colder than Feb 2019. We have a cabin up in that area and hit -40 last January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'm still banking on a January 1998 type event 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Euro has already begun underestimating the arctic air. Here's the last three runs at what was initialization (4am) this morning. Today Last night's euro Yesterday's 12z Good find! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 No two feet of snow for me this time. Hopefully I can still reach the one foot mark...If I’m lucky. 1 1 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just got a text alert from King 5. Several inches possible. It begins.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Meanwhile my nasty rat dog has began sun bathing again, usually happens mid February. Sun angles on the rise! 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Wouldn't that shove the snowstorms a bit more south? Maybe it's leaning toward the GFS and could be colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Wouldn't that shove the snowstorms a bit more south? Ask the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 We lost the GDPS. Show's the major snow over Portland 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: We lost the GDPS. Show's the major snow over Portland 48 hours out from the event and the Euro off on its own. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, GobBluth said: 48 hours out from the event and the Euro off on its own. Yeah and the Canadian on it's own planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 It’s wait and see at this point whether portland gets snow, ice, or sleet. Or just plain rain! "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: And then mean snowfall by Saturday morning... Again, more than 00z but roughly the same as 06z. That is a buttload of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Come on mouth of Columbia landfall or slightly north of that!!!! 1 1 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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