The other day when we had the high risk did not pan out in the OKC area. There was one strong storm with damaging winds but that was it. I could see the power flashes with that one to my north. At my house in Tulsa there was an inch of rain but nothing too exciting. Obviously the EF4 that was north of Tulsa was the real deal, a total monster.
There is lots of talk about why things did not live up to the potential. In my opinion it was because the downdrafts were too cold and strong. I think the dry air aloft entrained and diluted the storms to some degree, but then the cold downdrafts that resulted choked things off. Further east where that strong storm formed it was not as dry aloft.
It looks pretty serious today for MO down into TN/KY right now.
Looks like they're basically going with what the GEFS shows. The 12z Euro is quite a bit cooler for the mid section of the country.
Not for the PNW, though.
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