August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hilary made landfall in Mexico and then tracked across the border. Inaccurate tweet.

It reformed its center over the LA Basin closer to the coast.  NHC was talking about it

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/210252.shtml?

 

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/150034.shtml?cone

 

 

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

was 77-78 a Nino?

Yeah, weak Nino.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, weak Nino.

some of the previous socal august precip records are from 77.  san diego for one I think

[Dan the Weatherman]

57 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I sure wish I could use the REACTION BUTTONS. You'd get a cute blob with a heart right now. It has been ten days since we could use them.

Does anyone know what disabled the Reaction Buttons? I am wondering if it was a recent software update or upgrade.

Edited August 21, 2023 by Dan the Weatherman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

26 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

some of the previous socal august precip records are from 77.  san diego for one I think

Obviously the super hot streak in August that year too... Interesting. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Obviously the super hot streak in August that year too... Interesting. 

Good November snowstorm that year, that would be nice

[The Blob]

2 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

I hope it goes well for you.  It's very difficult stuff.  I am dealing with similar things with my Grandma. Moved her out of her home, had to send her to a care home, and emptying her house to sell it.  Best of luck.  Prayers for you if you wish.

My mom has been taking care of her 98yr old aunt as she's been declining. They don't want to put her in a home as they know she'll be miserable there. So her and her brother rotate going over to take care of things.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Good November snowstorm that year, that would be nice

Other than that though... But still. 

[YahRaEl]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-2023-2024-season-early-look-polar-vortex-el-nino-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Stroke?

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story. A few different things that compounded into a bad situation. He has had severe Crohn’s disease for at least 30 years so he has been on immunosuppressive meds forever, a week before he collapsed he had slipped and fallen while walking his dog at the park which tore up his leg. It got massively infected but he didn’t tell anyone and of course didn’t heal on its own due to all of his meds. On August 2nd I decided last minute to take the 3rd off and take the kids to the lake, my dad currently lives at the family lake house so we just happen to be there. Long story short was he seemed fine for most of the day, and I was just getting ready to start packing up and went to the back yard where he likes to sit in his favorite chair in the sun, and he was hunched over and was yelling he couldn’t get up out of the chair, I tried helping him but he collapsed on his back in the grass and vomited which he then aspirated on. I tried getting him on his side but he was fighting me so I called 911. Luckily the kids were still in the front (lake side) with my sister so they missed the whole thing. By the time I got home to drop off the dogs and then got to the hospital they had him on a ventilator and he was teetering on death. Aspirating is no joke, they Also found secondary infections going on so his body took a big hit. Took about a week for him to start breathing on his own, and another week to finally kick the infections and get his high fevers down. Now he is just extremely weak and unable to stand on his own yet and is still on a feeding tube, but he is just beginning to eat on his own. It’s crazy just how much weight he has lost since being hospitalized. Just glad both my sister and I took that day off, otherwise he would have been by himself and most likely would have died in the back yard. He doesn’t remember anything from that day other than being in an ambulance which is probably a good thing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-2023-2024-season-early-look-polar-vortex-el-nino-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Thanks for the Link

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story. A few different things that compounded into a bad situation. He has had severe Crohn’s disease for at least 30 years so he has been on immunosuppressive meds forever, a week before he collapsed he had slipped and fallen while walking his dog at the park which tore up his leg. It got massively infected but he didn’t tell anyone and of course didn’t heal on its own due to all of his meds. On August 2nd I decided last minute to take the 3rd off and take the kids to the lake, my dad currently lives at the family lake house so we just happen to be there. Long story short was he seemed fine for most of the day, and I was just getting ready to start packing up and went to the back yard where he likes to sit in his favorite chair in the sun, and he was hunched over and was yelling he couldn’t get up out of the chair, I tried helping him but he collapsed on his back in the grass and vomited which he then aspirated on. I tried getting him on his side but he was fighting me so I called 911. Luckily the kids were still in the front (lake side) with my sister so they missed the whole thing. By the time I got home to drop off the dogs and then got to the hospital they had him on a ventilator and he was teetering on death. Aspirating is no joke, they Also found secondary infections going on so his body took a big hit. Took about a week for him to start breathing on his own, and another week to finally kick the infections and get his high fevers down. Now he is just extremely weak and unable to stand on his own yet and is still on a feeding tube, but he is just beginning to eat on his own. It’s crazy just how much weight he has lost since being hospitalized. Just glad both my sister and I took that day off, otherwise he would have been by himself and most likely would have died in the back yard. He doesn’t remember anything from that day other than being in an ambulance which is probably a good thing. 

Wow, I'm so sorry he is going through all that, but glad you were in that place that day. Will be thinking of you guys. 

[NWbyNW]

Some rain in the forecast for Everett.  What is this, fall?  j/k  Please, give us rain.

[NWbyNW]

52 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

Does anyone know what disabled the Reaction Buttons? I am wondering if it was a recent software update or upgrade.

I truly have no idea.  I wish the administration would give us an answer.  It was one of my favorite aspects of the site.

[NWbyNW]

16 minutes ago, The Blob said:

My mom has been taking care of her 98yr old aunt as she's been declining. They don't want to put her in a home as they know she'll be miserable there. So her and her brother rotate going over to take care of things.

It's a ton of work.  It's wonderful they do that, and they are lucky they are able too.  We didn't have that luxury as she lived in Port Townsend, so for a few years we had paid to have people come visit her and help her with stuff, but finally she fell and it got worse and worse, so we had to take action we didn't want to take.  She can't live on her own anymore.

Getting old stinks and I hope it goes well for your family. 98Yrs is impressive. She's seen so much! I'm sure she has some great stories. 

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story. A few different things that compounded into a bad situation. He has had severe Crohn’s disease for at least 30 years so he has been on immunosuppressive meds forever, a week before he collapsed he had slipped and fallen while walking his dog at the park which tore up his leg. It got massively infected but he didn’t tell anyone and of course didn’t heal on its own due to all of his meds. On August 2nd I decided last minute to take the 3rd off and take the kids to the lake, my dad currently lives at the family lake house so we just happen to be there. Long story short was he seemed fine for most of the day, and I was just getting ready to start packing up and went to the back yard where he likes to sit in his favorite chair in the sun, and he was hunched over and was yelling he couldn’t get up out of the chair, I tried helping him but he collapsed on his back in the grass and vomited which he then aspirated on. I tried getting him on his side but he was fighting me so I called 911. Luckily the kids were still in the front (lake side) with my sister so they missed the whole thing. By the time I got home to drop off the dogs and then got to the hospital they had him on a ventilator and he was teetering on death. Aspirating is no joke, they Also found secondary infections going on so his body took a big hit. Took about a week for him to start breathing on his own, and another week to finally kick the infections and get his high fevers down. Now he is just extremely weak and unable to stand on his own yet and is still on a feeding tube, but he is just beginning to eat on his own. It’s crazy just how much weight he has lost since being hospitalized. Just glad both my sister and I took that day off, otherwise he would have been by himself and most likely would have died in the back yard. He doesn’t remember anything from that day other than being in an ambulance which is probably a good thing. 

Wow. Glad he's recovering.

[NWbyNW]

So believe it or not, this is improving.  Improvement is happening in NW Washington, the Oly Peninsula, and Lower Mainland BC.  It's funny because NW WA and the Lower Mainland were the last places the models expected to see improvement on the western side of the mountains.

[NWbyNW]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story....

What a scary set of events.  It thankfully worked out so you were there at that instant to be able to get him to help.  It was a blessing you were there and very lucky you just so happened to take the day off.  Maybe it all came together for a reason you were there to help him.  I really hope it gets better for him and your family. 

[Meatyorologist]

Some neat standing gravity waves evident on radar over the desert. Near saturated air going on a roller coaster ride as it is ripped north by the parting and filling parent storm, over steep mountain ranges and vast, deep valleys.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Some neat standing gravity waves evident on radar over the desert. Near saturated air going on a roller coaster ride as it is ripped north by the parting and filling parent storm, over steep mountain ranges and vast, deep valleys.

Pretty cool stuff. 

[Skagit Weather]

With the thick smoke hovering overhead, didn't even break 70F this weekend. Both days topped out at 68F after lows in the 40s.

[NWbyNW]

1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

So believe it or not, this is improving.  Improvement is happening in NW Washington, the Oly Peninsula, and Lower Mainland BC.  It's funny because NW WA and the Lower Mainland were the last places the models expected to see improvement on the western side of the mountains.

It just keeps gradually getting better for the western half but absolutely horrible for the eastern half.  More of the Puget Sound and Willamette Valley or Orange and Yellow.  Coastal areas getting more green.

[NWbyNW]

17 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

With the thick smoke hovering overhead, didn't even break 70F this weekend. Both days topped out at 68F after lows in the 40s.

That must feel wonderful to have lows in the 40s.  The smoke helped us as well.  Well below the projected highs.  One day was 68F and the other 70F.

[Tanis Leach]

In terms of hurricanes, hurricane Dorreen dissipated just off the coast of LA, also in 77.

Last time the continental US had a TS from the eastern Pacific was 1997, Nora, also an El Nino.

Even off our coast wasn't immune, there was a confirmed hurricane in 1975 (ironically a La Nina, which should've made it less favorable), at 44N, 151W (I don't like to link Wikipedia, but the sources are the NHC, AMS, and CPHC so you can't get better than that). It was less than 6 hours from making landfall near the BC/Alaska border before it transitioned to extratropical/merged with something else:  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pacific_Northwest_hurricane

2006 was another confirmed TS, but is not in the NHC's database (ironically, the CHC has it in theirs. Formed over 18C water (see Alex 2016 discussion 4/5 for another example in the Atlantic for how its possible). Strongest at about 42.5N, 145W, transitioned to non-tropical at 42.5N, 135W, and made landfall in Washington 36 hours later.  : https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0213.1.xml

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story. A few different things that compounded into a bad situation. He has had severe Crohn’s disease for at least 30 years so he has been on immunosuppressive meds forever, a week before he collapsed he had slipped and fallen while walking his dog at the park which tore up his leg. It got massively infected but he didn’t tell anyone and of course didn’t heal on its own due to all of his meds. On August 2nd I decided last minute to take the 3rd off and take the kids to the lake, my dad currently lives at the family lake house so we just happen to be there. Long story short was he seemed fine for most of the day, and I was just getting ready to start packing up and went to the back yard where he likes to sit in his favorite chair in the sun, and he was hunched over and was yelling he couldn’t get up out of the chair, I tried helping him but he collapsed on his back in the grass and vomited which he then aspirated on. I tried getting him on his side but he was fighting me so I called 911. Luckily the kids were still in the front (lake side) with my sister so they missed the whole thing. By the time I got home to drop off the dogs and then got to the hospital they had him on a ventilator and he was teetering on death. Aspirating is no joke, they Also found secondary infections going on so his body took a big hit. Took about a week for him to start breathing on his own, and another week to finally kick the infections and get his high fevers down. Now he is just extremely weak and unable to stand on his own yet and is still on a feeding tube, but he is just beginning to eat on his own. It’s crazy just how much weight he has lost since being hospitalized. Just glad both my sister and I took that day off, otherwise he would have been by himself and most likely would have died in the back yard. He doesn’t remember anything from that day other than being in an ambulance which is probably a good thing. 

D**n… sounds like quite the ordeal! Glad he seems to be on a decent trajectory all things considered. We’ve had a shaky run this year as well on the aging parent front among other issues. 2023 has been a real winner.

[Cold Snap]

28 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

In terms of hurricanes, hurricane Dorreen dissipated just off the coast of LA, also in 77.

Last time the continental US had a TS from the eastern Pacific was 1997, Nora, also an El Nino.

Even off our coast wasn't immune, there was a confirmed hurricane in 1975 (ironically a La Nina, which should've made it less favorable), at 44N, 151W (I don't like to link Wikipedia, but the sources are the NHC, AMS, and CPHC so you can't get better than that). It was less than 6 hours from making landfall near the BC/Alaska border before it transitioned to extratropical/merged with something else:  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pacific_Northwest_hurricane

2006 was another confirmed TS, but is not in the NHC's database (ironically, the CHC has it in theirs. Formed over 18C water (see Alex 2016 discussion 4/5 for another example in the Atlantic for how its possible). Strongest at about 42.5N, 145W, transitioned to non-tropical at 42.5N, 135W, and made landfall in Washington 36 hours later.  : https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0213.1.xml

Those are both really interesting. Those always make me wonder if something tropical could make landfall on the Washington or Oregon coast. The tracks for those two are below.

[Cold Snap]

I remember at one point washington was in the cone for Ignacio in 2015. Though it shifted north and was going to be Extratropical anyways. Oho from that year also had a cone that went up towards SE Alaska but was also Extratropical by then.

[NWbyNW]

Here is a model showing how the ground level smoke will flush out tomorrow.  Smoke at higher levels in the atmosphere will be slower to move out, but they will eventually too. Smoke will concentrate in central Washington... 

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but we could see smoke return again as soon as Thursday, again with the majority of it pouring in from BC.  Though there is hope we could see more rain this weekend which could quell it all. 

[the_convergence_zone]

5 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

Here is a model showing how the ground level smoke will flush out tomorrow.  Smoke at higher levels in the atmosphere will be slower to move out, but they will eventually too. Smoke will concentrate in central Washington... 

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but we could see smoke return again as soon as Thursday, again with the majority of it pouring in from BC.  Though there is hope we could see more rain this weekend which could quell it all. 

Getting some rain over BC this week  help, but I’m sure the next heat wave this coming weekend will fan the flames again. 

[Cloud]

Can’t even honestly tell this morning if it’s marine layer or smoke aloft. Sun is certainly ain’t out there.

[Tyler Mode]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Can’t even honestly tell this morning if it’s marine layer or smoke aloft. Sun is certainly ain’t out there.

Same, it looks more smoky, I can see a few high clouds too but not yet the sun.

[Phishy Wx]

8 hours ago, ChristheElohim said:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-2023-2024-season-early-look-polar-vortex-el-nino-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

that's one of my favorite sites. its usually EU focused but also dives into North American and ENSO stuff

[TT-SEA]

34 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Can’t even honestly tell this morning if it’s marine layer or smoke aloft. Sun is certainly ain’t out there.

If you look closely... you can see the marine layer up to about Tacoma and thick smoke over the Seattle area but the clearing line is making progress eastward now with increased onshore flow.

[Skagit Weather]

6 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Those are both really interesting. Those always make me wonder if something tropical could make landfall on the Washington or Oregon coast. The tracks for those two are below.

I think it would be incredibly challenging for something to retain tropical characteristics by the time it hit the PNW. Currently most of the sea surface temps are above normal and this is getting close to their annual peak. Hurricanes need water at least 26C (79F) to retain strength without weakening. The closest water that is over 26C is at least 1,700 miles away and tropical systems rarely move more than 30 mph so it would be at least 2 days of continuous weakening before the system reached here which would tear the system apart (or at least make it post-tropical).

[TacomaWx]

Marine layer has pushed in this morning and the AQI is down to 59 here.  I don’t think the AQI ever got above 200 and the smoke was only here for less than 48 hours. Could’ve been a lot worse. Will probably be in the green in the next few hours. 

[Phil]

8 hours ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story. A few different things that compounded into a bad situation. He has had severe Crohn’s disease for at least 30 years so he has been on immunosuppressive meds forever, a week before he collapsed he had slipped and fallen while walking his dog at the park which tore up his leg. It got massively infected but he didn’t tell anyone and of course didn’t heal on its own due to all of his meds. On August 2nd I decided last minute to take the 3rd off and take the kids to the lake, my dad currently lives at the family lake house so we just happen to be there. Long story short was he seemed fine for most of the day, and I was just getting ready to start packing up and went to the back yard where he likes to sit in his favorite chair in the sun, and he was hunched over and was yelling he couldn’t get up out of the chair, I tried helping him but he collapsed on his back in the grass and vomited which he then aspirated on. I tried getting him on his side but he was fighting me so I called 911. Luckily the kids were still in the front (lake side) with my sister so they missed the whole thing. By the time I got home to drop off the dogs and then got to the hospital they had him on a ventilator and he was teetering on death. Aspirating is no joke, they Also found secondary infections going on so his body took a big hit. Took about a week for him to start breathing on his own, and another week to finally kick the infections and get his high fevers down. Now he is just extremely weak and unable to stand on his own yet and is still on a feeding tube, but he is just beginning to eat on his own. It’s crazy just how much weight he has lost since being hospitalized. Just glad both my sister and I took that day off, otherwise he would have been by himself and most likely would have died in the back yard. He doesn’t remember anything from that day other than being in an ambulance which is probably a good thing. 

Wow, thank god you were there. Hoping he makes a speedy recovery.

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 hours ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t a stroke…Was a much longer story. A few different things that compounded into a bad situation. He has had severe Crohn’s disease for at least 30 years so he has been on immunosuppressive meds forever, a week before he collapsed he had slipped and fallen while walking his dog at the park which tore up his leg. It got massively infected but he didn’t tell anyone and of course didn’t heal on its own due to all of his meds. On August 2nd I decided last minute to take the 3rd off and take the kids to the lake, my dad currently lives at the family lake house so we just happen to be there. Long story short was he seemed fine for most of the day, and I was just getting ready to start packing up and went to the back yard where he likes to sit in his favorite chair in the sun, and he was hunched over and was yelling he couldn’t get up out of the chair, I tried helping him but he collapsed on his back in the grass and vomited which he then aspirated on. I tried getting him on his side but he was fighting me so I called 911. Luckily the kids were still in the front (lake side) with my sister so they missed the whole thing. By the time I got home to drop off the dogs and then got to the hospital they had him on a ventilator and he was teetering on death. Aspirating is no joke, they Also found secondary infections going on so his body took a big hit. Took about a week for him to start breathing on his own, and another week to finally kick the infections and get his high fevers down. Now he is just extremely weak and unable to stand on his own yet and is still on a feeding tube, but he is just beginning to eat on his own. It’s crazy just how much weight he has lost since being hospitalized. Just glad both my sister and I took that day off, otherwise he would have been by himself and most likely would have died in the back yard. He doesn’t remember anything from that day other than being in an ambulance which is probably a good thing. 

D**n man that's rough.  It's odd how things work out and that you and your sister happened to be there.  Glad to hear he is on the mend, and hopefully he can make a full recovery.  It sucks watching our parents get old.  You guys are in my thoughts.

[TacomaWx]

Looks like we’re going to get a little rain in the next couple days too. I’m sure we will have a wildfire smoke intrusion again before the fall rains really get going unfortunately…but maybe we won’t really get it that bad here around Puget sound this year. 

[Phil]

7 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

In terms of hurricanes, hurricane Dorreen dissipated just off the coast of LA, also in 77.

Last time the continental US had a TS from the eastern Pacific was 1997, Nora, also an El Nino.

Even off our coast wasn't immune, there was a confirmed hurricane in 1975 (ironically a La Nina, which should've made it less favorable), at 44N, 151W (I don't like to link Wikipedia, but the sources are the NHC, AMS, and CPHC so you can't get better than that). It was less than 6 hours from making landfall near the BC/Alaska border before it transitioned to extratropical/merged with something else:  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pacific_Northwest_hurricane

2006 was another confirmed TS, but is not in the NHC's database (ironically, the CHC has it in theirs. Formed over 18C water (see Alex 2016 discussion 4/5 for another example in the Atlantic for how its possible). Strongest at about 42.5N, 145W, transitioned to non-tropical at 42.5N, 135W, and made landfall in Washington 36 hours later.  : https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0213.1.xml

At BC/AK border it couldn’t possibly have been fully topical/warm core. Those waters cannot sustain warm rain cyclogenetic processes especially in the face of shear at that latitude.

Possible it could have been subtropical.

[LowerGarfield]

Currently at AQI of 70 in the moderate category and decreasing. Pullman/Moscow are green. Lewiston improving. Clarkston still unhealthy at the valley floor but they were the last one to be green on Saturday so I guess it evens out. Hoping for rain today.