weatherwonder Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 53 minutes ago, Phil said: THERE WE GO BABY! Winter is Coming to the PNW! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Steady rain continuing and it's up to 2.64" for today. 7.20" now for December. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Roughly 57% of 12z GEFS members show snow for Seattle, with the average around 2.5 inches. That's the best chances shown for the main Western WA areas. Do you have KPLU ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, Phil said: What’s really crazy is the system that’s about to strike the PNW is what produces the big NATL wavebreak/-NAO, and even aids in the wave-2 response in the stratosphere. Nature really is something. Watch what happens to the PNW system as it crosses the Rockies early in the gif. I made a shirt that looks like that at the Puyallup Fair one year. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF has been pretty insistent that c-zone will be up north after the main front. Looks good for Randy. How well does the ECMWF usually do in these situations? I haven't followed it closely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1.58" in the last 24 hours at my house, 3-4" up toward the foothills. This is video of Moulton and Lucia Falls east of Battle Ground. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: How well does the ECMWF usually do in these situations? I haven't followed it closely. Better than most Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Looks like the water is just roaring out of the Santiam Canyon today. 4 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Yeah this ain't happening. Pretty to look at though. How can anyone take a model seriously when it outputs a solution like this inside 48hrs? better question is. What makes it output this solution? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Does anyone have the eps maps for mean low placement? Curious to see if it’s line with the op Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Phil said: THERE WE GO BABY! Still stuck at hour 384. Regardless of what happens with the SSW, the overall pattern looks to get more interesting towards the very end of the month. All models show increasing high latitude blocking in the general areas that lead to cold in the lower 48. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Wilson Siletz Siuslaw all under flood warnings now on the Oregon coast. SLE now over 1.5” of rain since midnight. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Phil said: What’s really crazy is the system that’s about to strike the PNW is what produces the big NATL wavebreak/-NAO, and even aids in the wave-2 response in the stratosphere. Nature really is something. Watch what happens to the PNW system as it crosses the Rockies early in the gif. I would recommend passing on this if you're smoking weed. Reminds me of a 70's oil lamp. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: Does anyone have the eps maps for mean low placement? Curious to see if it’s line with the op 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 If the 18zzzz’s still have me in the blue I am going to go ahead and stage my plow and get the snow shovel out of the shed. Currently drizzling and 46. .02” so far on the day. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 12Z EPS... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Need to move that down to Coos Bay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z NAM looking more like the Euro than it's 12z run through 1PM. Is the 3km similar? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS... I have seen worse. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, MossMan said: If the 18zzzz’s still have me in the blue I am going to go ahead and stage my plow and get the snow shovel out of the shed. Currently drizzling and 46. .02” so far on the day. Is there any doubt you and Tim will be the big winners with this? 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Just now, hawkstwelve said: This is obviously overdone but still good to see it stick to it's guns. Can you post the W Oregon one so I can pretend I will get a nice snow event tomorrow? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Looks like this is already SLE's wettest day since 2/5/17, Andrew. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Still ends up nice for Central Sound. I dropped a dish doing a fist pump in air 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Still ends up nice for Central Sound. Let’s go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Looks like this is already SLE's wettest day since 2/5/17, Andrew. Wow. Good to hear. Coming off 3 straight very dry water years we are probably due for some more of this... Hopefully. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Thanks. Looks like about a 1000-1500 snow level. Not bad. I have become fairly skeptical we will see accumulating snow, but we ll see. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 46 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Still stuck at hour 384. Regardless of what happens with the SSW, the overall pattern looks to get more interesting towards the very end of the month. All models show increasing high latitude blocking in the general areas that lead to cold in the lower 48. Lol, well it’s moving up in timing. It’s just more of the event has entered the picture. The blocky, highly meridional pattern you mention is directly associated with the tropical forcing/poleward EP flux vectors behind the SSW, so I don’t think you can really separate them. I view the SSW is sort of an inflection point, or fork in the road, where its occurrence (or lack thereof) can/will have significant impacts for months afterwards following the same trigger. For instance, had the SSW in January 2019 failed, February 2019 outcome likely would have been very different..probably would’ve been an ordinary, canonical niño February. Deposition of momentum/Dt would have been radically different. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 NAM is also being good to Whatcom County. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Check out this suppressed jet! Something uniquely -NAO. Badly needed in SW US. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, Phil said: Lol, well it’s moving up in timing. It’s just more of the event has entered the picture. The blocky, highly meridional pattern you mention is directly associated with the tropical forcing/poleward EP flux vectors behind the SSW, so I don’t think you can really separate them. I view the SSW is sort of an inflection point, or fork in the road, where its occurrence (or lack thereof) can/will have significant impacts for months afterwards following the same trigger. For instance, had the SSW in January 2019 failed, February 2019 outcome likely would have been very different..probably would’ve been an ordinary, canonical niño February. Deposition of momentum/Dt would have been radically different. I agree, I don’t think it’s “stuck” at a certain range. It’s definitely more of an evolution now which seems to be starting in a couple days. Whether it evolves to an exceptional event is obviously unknown. 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 My old house in Lake Stevens may get a nice event. I will be following the cameras to see if some of my old friends are having fun... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 17 minutes ago, Phil said: Lol, well it’s moving up in timing. It’s just more of the event has entered the picture. The blocky, highly meridional pattern you mention is directly associated with the tropical forcing/poleward EP flux vectors behind the SSW, so I don’t think you can really separate them. I view the SSW is sort of an inflection point, or fork in the road, where its occurrence (or lack thereof) can/will have significant impacts for months afterwards following the same trigger. For instance, had the SSW in January 2019 failed, February 2019 outcome likely would have been very different..probably would’ve been an ordinary, canonical niño February. Deposition of momentum/Dt would have been radically different. I know, was just giving you a hard time for the continuous 384 hour maps. As we have discussed previously, there is some evidence that big SSWs are more likely during/right after low solar periods. If this one happens, would make two in less than two years. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Pretty sharp frontal passage Monday morning— NWS discussion mentioned a brief bout of gusty winds. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wilson Siletz Siuslaw all under flood warnings now on the Oregon coast. SLE now over 1.5” of rain since midnight. Drove over the Siuslaw about 3pm yesterday and there was no off color water in the bay. My how that changed quickly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Huge leap north in the icon. And so it begins, lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: Huge leap north in the icon. And so it begins, lol Can’t remember the last time I looked at the icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: Huge leap north in the icon. And so it begins, lol Good thing I haven’t staged my plow yet. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Good thing I haven’t staged my plow yet. RGEM also a touch north. I'm not worried yet, but will wait till the GFS and euro to cast my judgement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 45 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Exhibit A of HRRR being a horrible model... 18z run shows almost a foot of snow falling near Everett. Will never happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 I'll stay up for the 18z and tell you guys how it looks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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