Cloud Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: C2C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, wxmet said: Holy crap! Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Please let this run be right! Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: Please let this run be right! I'll take a blend with the Euro since it had more moisture next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Looking at these runs on the Euro and GFS, it’s amazing what a 25-50 miles shifts can do. 18z was actually really good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Kolk1604 said: I'll take a blend with the Euro since it had more moisture next weekend. If that CAA is as strong as the GFS suggests then the convective potential will be off the charts. Definitely has thundersnow possibilities somewhere. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Things stay generally chilly for days on this run. Freezing nights would mean slow snow melt in the shade. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Looking at these runs on the Euro and GFS, it’s amazing what a 25-50 miles shifts can do. 18z was actually really good imo. A really good blend. Very often the ECMWF and GFS meet in the middle. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: A really good blend. Very often the ECMWF and GFS meet in the middle. I still want to see a better EURO run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Per the 18Z numbers Seattle doesn't break 40 degrees between the 8th and the 18th. Crazy but of course not a reliably accurate source,. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 25 minutes ago, Timmy said: Hard to complain about this On the dry side for my neck of the woods. And that’s been a general trend, which probably says something. 2 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Things stay generally chilly for days on this run. Freezing nights would mean slow snow melt in the shade. Yeah, I was gonna say GFS still sticking with the cold hanging around. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: A really good blend. Very often the ECMWF and GFS meet in the middle. Maybe they should meet the UKMET. Balls cold and everyone wins! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Got up to 48F here today with a little bit of sun earlier. Hopefully that's the warmest it gets for a couple weeks. Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: If that CAA is as strong as the GFS suggests then the convective potential will be off the charts. Definitely has thundersnow possibilities somewhere. Paine Field dewpoint dropped from 35 to 28 in the last half hour! i am excited about tonight actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 From SEA NWS: 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: If that CAA is as strong as the GFS suggests then the convective potential will be off the charts. Definitely has thundersnow possibilities somewhere. Would like to see a thundersnow during a blizzard. So far I've only had one in May in 2015. Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: On the dry side for my neck of the woods. And that’s been a general trend, which probably says something. You guy's will be ok. You scored last year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said: Paine Field dewpoint dropped from 35 to 28 in the last half hour! i am excited about tonight actually. Was about to post that. Went from 45/35 an hour ago to 43/28 now. I'll definitely be watching the radar and observations closely tonight! 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: I think you worry almost as much about having literally everyone on board as you do about the models and the actual weather! Maybe 45% to 55%. Probably why everyone one of love Jim. This place would not be the same without him or you're nutty self! 2 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: On the dry side for my neck of the woods. And that’s been a general trend, which probably says something. Lol you guys aren’t due...WE ARE! But who knows this thing could go either way...Snow only north of the border or cold and dry from Eugene north. We will see probably something in between those 2 extremes. 1 1 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 18z GEFS Surface temps coldest yet For PDX-GORGE signaling a major low level arctic blast. These are VERY impressive for an ensemble mean! Surface temps, lowest high/low temps Seattle - 25.1 / 17.7 Portland - 21.2 / 16.5 Bellingham - 17.7 / 6.2 The Dalles - 12.7 / 7.5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cjmessling Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Forum mood improvement I might have picked the right time to visit Bend! I hope everyone gets hammered but I’m starting to get a bit excited for what awaits me next week. I am assuming the ratio out there should be a bit higher than 10:1. Especially when it shows decent precip with temps in the teens and below 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Cliff Mass just bought in: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/02/convergence-zone-snow-tonight-and-major.html 6 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Lol you guys aren’t due...WE ARE! But who knows this thing could go either way...Snow only north of the border or cold and dry from Eugene north. We will see probably something in between those 2 extremes. It's rarely so cut and dry, I use the same "method" for model runs as I do for cold/snow potential. Go with a blend of the most consistent runs and see what happens, we so rarely ever get the extremes the models spit out no matter the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Currently cloudy and 41 after a high of 44. DP 36. .02” of melted frozen precip (like what was on my deck earlier) so far on the day. 4 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Lol you guys aren’t due...WE ARE! But who knows this thing could go either way...Snow only north of the border or cold and dry from Eugene north. We will see probably something in between those 2 extremes. More in one’s own backyard is always better! 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 53 minutes ago, MossMan said: I need a foot minimum! That's what she said. 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cjmessling said: I might have picked the right time to visit Bend! I hope everyone gets hammered but I’m starting to get a bit excited for what awaits me next week. I am assuming the ratio out there should be a bit higher than 10:1. Especially when it shows decent precip with temps in the teens and below It's usually more than 10:1 east of the cascades for sure. Been in several snows that were officially 20:1. The models still show real weak amounts at my place, just doubting I get 3" while Bend gets that much. 1 Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, JBolin said: It's rarely so cut and dry, I use the same "method" for model runs as I do for cold/snow potential. Go with a blend of the most consistent runs and see what happens, we so rarely ever get the extremes the models spit out no matter the outcome. Yea...I was meaning to say something in between the 2 extremes is the likely outcome here. Highly doubt we get 500 thicknesses and sub 20 high temps in the western lowlands...or that nobody gets any snow south of the border either. Gonna be something in the middle. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, JBolin said: It's rarely so cut and dry, I use the same "method" for model runs as I do for cold/snow potential. Go with a blend of the most consistent runs and see what happens, we so rarely ever get the extremes the models spit out no matter the outcome. Overall trend has been pretty consistent in saying I get the shaft when it comes to snow this time. I guess I’ll have to settle for single-digit minima and highs in the teens as a consolation prize (assuming that pans out). P.S. And I’m still rooting for an unforecast surface low or two to spin up in the cold outflow on the BC coast. Some of those model runs are cumulative over a week out, and we all know how accurate model runs a week out typically are. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: Currently cloudy and 41 after a high of 44. DP 36. .02” of melted frozen precip (like what was on my deck earlier) so far on the day. Kinda looks like graupel. Get that all the time in the Spring down here 1 Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Haven’t broke 40°F today, I wonder when I will see 40°F again.. It’s been hailing on and off for hours now. Skylight is leaking.. good timing. Mostly off... just a few quick hail showers. The last one was a little more impressive but only lasted for a couple minutes. It was 41 here earlier... 39 now. 43 in North Bend. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 The GFS ensemble mean is still -7.5 on the 15th. Really impressive run! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 49 minutes ago, Timmy said: Hard to complain about this I'll even take half of that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’d just be happy with 1” of snow and a couple sub freezing days. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Looks like an impressive cluster of ensemble members stays below -10 forever on this run. Don't see that very often. A full blown bust seems pretty unlikely now, but you never know of course. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just caught up....decided to place a marker. Enjoy game all !!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Forget the Euro, I'm going with the Weather.com model for PDX 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: I’d just be happy with 1” of snow and a couple sub freezing days. It is quite likely you will be significantly colder and snowier than that. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Bryant,
11 reactions
Go to this post