jakerepp Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Lock it in! Would be a whole lot of happy people were this to verify...nobody from the southern reaches of the Portland metro to the border would complain. Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Lock it in! I'm fine with that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Requiem said: I woke up hoping the models would be an better agreement... apparently not lol. Still seems like anyone’s game at this point though odds are that it’s gonna be a Portland north event. Yes, I would say things are overall going the way we thought they would go. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, MossMan said: Make the decision based on the 12z EURO! That was my plan. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, wxmet said: 12z GFS is handling the trough coming down the B.C. more similarly to the ECMWF. There are some slight timing issues which result in differences with the Pacific system but the GFS looks like it’s trending towards the ECMWF. The easiest way to see this is to look at the 500 mb vorticity map from the GFS 00z to 12z. Each run pushes the B.C. trough axis further back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looking at the meteograms for the 6z runs for pdx odds look something like Euro: 60% bust 40% something 20% something good/great GFS 50% bust 50% something 33% something good/great Not ideal but we're still hanging in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Snow in the valley as well... 7 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 February looks to be a cold month nationally. Just not here. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 PDX running a healthy +2.1 departure on the month. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 UKMET brings the low in at the mouth of the Columbia. Near perfect for SEA and areas north. Still gets it done in PDX due to the gorge but cutting it close. See 00z from last night below which brought it in by the central OR coast, quite a shift north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Snowing lightly. Looks like a little CZ fired up over me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just had a quick shower of some mixed precip. Looks like a little more off to the west a bit. 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 GEFS low locations for Thursday. So many of these are south (even for PDX). Really interesting battle just over 3 days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The one thing that's becoming pretty clear is the 500mb pattern is not going to be the thing to look at this week. For example the UKMET gets pretty bad looking on the 500mb and yet Seattle and Portland both get slammed with a lot of snow. Goes to show how enormous pools of cold air can make up for a less than perfect pattern. Right now I think Thursday has a great shot at being quite something for Seattle. The GFS is dry, but a number of other models show us getting hit pretty had. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Some sun breaking through here. 8 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Some sun breaking through here. Beautiful morning up there! Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Nice shot TT. Always got cool views from your place. Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Well it definitely looks like this upcoming week is pretty much guaranteed to be our best cold snap in 2 years. Should have several days in western WA with highs in the low to mid 30s. It’s also looking pretty good for atleast getting a small snow event at some point this week/weekend...maybe even a decent snow event. Should be our best event in a couple years...much better than nothing. I’d definitely be upset if I was in Oregon but hard to be upset if you live in western WA very high odds of some cold and a bit of snow this week. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: February looks to be a cold month nationally. Just not here. Cold in a lot of other places too. Could be a cold month collectively for the entire northern hemisphere. Would love to see that. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: GEFS low locations for Thursday. So many of these are south (even for PDX). Really interesting battle just over 3 days out. At least none of them really show a low racing up way north to BC. Would hope to avoid anything making landfall north of the Columbia. Not too sure what to think about the 12z GFS which went way south, probably an outlier. The last Euro was actually decently far south with the low. Will just have to watch for the 12z euro. More worried about the euro just not bringing down enough cold air. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Managed a low of 31 here...no precipitation overnight and up to 37. Can’t wait to see the details work themselves out...still not a clear picture but the ingredients are there for something good here in the Puget sound this week. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The month of February will be dominated by Cold NE flow coming out of the Fraser. I can see Whatcom County being near or below freezing for the better part of 2 weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I’d say odds in the Puget sound region of 1-3” of snow are about 80% with a 50% chance of something in the 3-6” range. Models definitely show us getting atleast a few days of high temps upper 20s to mid 30s...that’s pretty much guaranteed at this point. Snow will come at some point wether it be multiple systems later this week or overrunning at the end. Odds are very good here in western WA...we just don’t know the exact details yet. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I say no thanks to 1.6” of ice for Eugene on GEM model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Big league cold in BC. Currently 18 in Lytton, -25 in Prince George, -31 at Fort Nelson, and Watson Lake (just barely into the Yukon) is currently a toasty -50. Going to get really cold in Bellingham soon! 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Let's go King EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 We'll see the 12z Euro here shortly but I did notice the 06z Euro seemed to be further south with the low? Here was the 00z at the same time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 12z ECMWF Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Big league cold in BC. Currently 18 in Lytton, -25 in Prince George, -31 at Fort Nelson, and Watson Lake (just barely into the Yukon) is currently a toasty -50. Going to get really cold in Bellingham soon! BLI-YWL near -11mb, OMK-YKA around -8mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, MWG said: I still have some hope at the end of February. Looking back at pictures it seems most of the significant events for Medford is at the end of February. A couple of times it has snowed through the entirety of February (2019, 2012) but yes probably my most notable events and 3-day totals tend to be at the end of Feb going into March. 02/25-27 2019 - 10" (3 day) 02/28-03/01 2012 - 9.75" (3 day) 02/23-24 2011 - 8.5" (2 day) One exception to this rule was in 2017 I had a quick 6.6" fall early on Feb 7. Nothing from the 17-18 winter was very noteworthy in K-Falls as I had no individual day over 3", much like this winter so far. But that'll change I think. Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Noticed that the UKIE had a massive snowstorm for Western Washington on Thursday. Showed over a foot for Seattle in 24 hours. 5 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew M Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Euro shifting south it appears 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Snow for Randy. I think? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Trend on most models is to not bring as much cold air into the Columbia basin. So the low may track further south, but becomes a bit of a moot point. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Some snow around the North Sound on Wednesday AM. Great to see! 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Trend on most models is to not bring as much cold air into the Columbia basin. So the low may track further south, but becomes a bit of a moot point. The Dalles got down to like -20c at 850mb on the 12z GFS... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looks like this run will be really snowy for the Puget Sound region. Two moisture sources converging. The area north of Seattle does pretty well on Wednesday from an apparent Arctic front. 3 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 AM Thursday arctic air trying to spill south into the Columbia Basin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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