November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Requiem]

Officially off board

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS shows the Op is a warm outlier big time after Day 4.5

[OysterPrintout]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

New GFS might make this place kinda boring.

We’ll need more memes.

Fred funnels a slush fund into the NWS specifically for the current GFS to keep it running 4x a day vs the euro to keep page hits up.

[Kolk1604]

12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Incorrect.   I found a way to see it by states.  Where you see GFS 16.3, click on USA instead of North America and it let's you zoom into any state.

Tonight's 0Z

 

18z

Right here? 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS shows the Op is a warm outlier big time after Day 4.5

So I'm wondering at what point the ensembles become more important than the operational.  Definitely not in the short term since the operational is at a much higher resolution.   Is it in the medium range?  And how do you define medium range.  

Either way it would be hard to have a lot of confidence in the operational when it diverges so much.  Not that it can't be right, but much less likely to be right than normal at that range.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So I'm wondering at what point the ensembles become more important than the operational.  Definitely not in the short term since the operational is at a much higher resolution.   Is it in the medium range?  And how do you define medium range.  

Either way it would be hard to have a lot of confidence in the operational when it diverges so much.  Not that it can't be right, but much less likely to be right than normal at that range.

Good point. I'd say medium range is Day 4.5+

[RentonHill]

GEFS at Day 7 compared to last night 00z run. 850s. I'm just going to choose to look at this and be happy. Consider it one of those "sun lamp" kind of things. Now i just need some Prozac. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So I'm wondering at what point the ensembles become more important than the operational.  Definitely not in the short term since the operational is at a much higher resolution.   Is it in the medium range?  And how do you define medium range.  

Either way it would be hard to have a lot of confidence in the operational when it diverges so much.  Not that it can't be right, but much less likely to be right than normal at that range.

The icon and GEM are probably a lot more in line with what the GFS ensembles are showing. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Right here? 

Yes.  And that opens it up to either regions or states. 

And what us odd and I can't explain, click it once and it opens up to regions (PNW, Great Lakes, etc).  Go back, click on USA again, and THEN it shows states.  Go back and click again, only regions, then back and click, states.  Seems to go back and forth. 

No wonder why it was so hard to find.

[lowlandsnow]

This GEFS is way snowier than the 18z at least for Portland and North 

[Dave]

At least I still have these guys in the freezer to cheer me up.

 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So I'm wondering at what point the ensembles become more important than the operational.  Definitely not in the short term since the operational is at a much higher resolution.   Is it in the medium range?  And how do you define medium range.  

Either way it would be hard to have a lot of confidence in the operational when it diverges so much.  Not that it can't be right, but much less likely to be right than normal at that range.

I’ve found that using ensembles inside about 150 hours can get pretty sketchy. Of course it also depends on what you’re using them for.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

This GEFS is way snowier than the 18z at least for Portland and North 

Post it pls?

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Post it pls?

This is out to hour 186.

Surface Temps look good also.

[Gradient Keeper]

There is still plenty of time to see things shift back to the east the next 72 hours. Do I expect it? No, but you can't rule anything out at this point.

[lowlandsnow]

[jakerepp]

Ah, I see it's doom and gloom season.

[RentonHill]

We still in this fam. GEFS still got that dawg in him

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We still in this fam. GEFS still got that dawg in him

Epic runs ahead 

[snow_wizard]

I'm just going to step away until this sorts itself out.  None of us has any idea how this will play out right now obviously.

[umadbro]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS surface temps PDX still frozen. When looking at temps at The Dalles and Moses Lake it indicates a major low level cold pool signature.

[MossMan]

I wonder if any of us will survive tonight’s Euro run!

[RentonHill]

SK going in the meat locker

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, MossMan said:

I wonder if any of us will survive tonight’s Euro run!

Great question.

[Gradient Keeper]

Columbia Basin ridiculously cold in the deep freezer.
Moses Lake. Surface temps. Also note how much the op was an outlier.

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I wonder if any of us will survive tonight’s Euro run!

[RentonHill]

Lol

[WeatherGeek2022]

I smell bust incoming.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

I smell bust incoming.

It would only be a bust if things drastically changed at the onset of a pattern, what is happening now is just disappointment and loss of hope of any good potential outcome.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

It would only be a bust if things drastically changed at the onset of a pattern, what is happening now is just disappointment and loss of hope of any good potential outcome.

That D**n BC terrain

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lol

[Snownerd3000]

This run is straight

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

This run is straight

I think that would be more like an atmospheric river instead of a block. 

[Meatyorologist]

32 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We still in this fam. GEFS still got that dawg in him

This is fantastic

[Cold Snap]

I’m not going to worry yet. This is still 5 days out like Feb 2019 and Feb 2021 were at the time of the pullback. I feel like someone is still going to score something.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

This run is straight

                                                  

 

I thought it was more like this.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 36. Got 0.78” of rain for the day. Though I might get a little more as it looks like there are some convergence zone showers forming.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

                                                  

 

I thought it was more like this.

You and my 4 year old would get along great. all poop all the time

[Gummy]

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I’m not going to worry yet. This is still 5 days out like Feb 2019 and Feb 2021 were at the time of the pullback. I feel like someone is still going to score something.

True. I can see North Bend doing well.