Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
Pretty net night last night. What a blessing to see the solar storm show we saw. I only ever saw the Northern Lights once before in Alaska, but this was pretty incredible for the PNW as well!
12Z ECMWF is not really ridgy... just not nearly as troughy and wet as previous runs showed. More in line with GFS. Looks like a fairly pleasant week ahead. Very little rain except for a couple c-zones between Seattle and Bellingham. Almost no rain elsewhere through next weekend. Looks like it will show rain for western OR after next weekend though.
12Z ECMWF shows mostly sunny Tuesday - Thursday now. Even the 00Z run was cloudy Wednesday and wet Thursday. 12Z run yesterday was very wet for Thursday.
N.A. map slower to update but you can see the change from the 00Z run by Wednesday morning. ECMWF is king.
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