MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 850mb temps on Thursday morning... 18Z on top and 12Z on the bottom. Wow that’s horrible. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Euro killing this thing quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: You mean to tell me what the 18z ECMWF for snow ratio tonight for the PSCZ is not temperature dependent? I thought you were looking at a precip map....never mind. Tonight we shouldn't be worried about anyway :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, wxmet said: This looks fantastic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 It appears to have pulled back about 5 degrees in departure from normal. -10 became -5.... Yet the overall warmer than normal colder than normal boundaries appear similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just have to hope the ECMWF 00z doesn’t take the low into Vancouver 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Not looking good but the setup with that low going 1000 miles north makes the map comparisons look weird obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Euro killing this thing quickly. It’s a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: I thought you were looking at a precip map....never mind. Tonight we shouldn't be worried about anyway :). It's cool. Things are going way too fast for me to even keep up anyway too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 If the 18z EURO is any precursor to the evening runs...its going to be a rough night on the forum. 1 1 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Euro out to lunch??? How come every other model shows it different??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Hopefully the 00Z euro comes around, probably won’t but we can hope. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Is there less data input on the euro 18z? Pretty hard to believe it would change that drastically in 6 hrs. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z Euro looks like January 2011 unfortunately. Still pretty much endless potential for both joy and heartache this week. Nature of the beast. 1 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Literally what I was afraid of with the 12z Euro run today, it was quite an unsettling change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, Jesse said: SEen this movie to many times andeew I'm fully vaccinated now. Let's go catch a movie! 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Glad I never uncancelled winter. Terrible run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 We cannot have the arctic trough cutting off to the north.... If this happens Winter is over and I say bring on the 70s. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 18z Euro looks like January 2011 unfortunately. That one scarred me I think. We’ve seen similar scenarios like that a couple times since and this one always had that vibe to me. I was hoping the models were possibly handling a similar setup in the mid range better than they did a decade ago this time. Looks like it still takes them a few days to catch onto the fact that modern airmasses are generally too weak to force the pattern like some runs were depicting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Literally what I was afraid of with the 12z Euro run today, it was quite an unsettling change. Why? Friday 00z was bad too and that followed up with 2 good runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 January 2011... All time model BUST. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The cold air is stretching out from west to east and east to west and not making much progress from north to south. Happens to us a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'm fully vaccinated now. Let's go catch a movie! think about the Feets of snow the GFS is giving you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Word of warning... the 18Z EPS only goes out through hour 90 which is now 4 a.m. Thursday morning. Don't expect much new information from the ECMWF until 10 p.m. tonight. The 18z EPS goes out 144hrs. It’s the OP run that stops at 90hrs. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 It should be an axiom that all lows trend north in the PNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The Weenie-ness is at an all time high. You are gung-ho and then you say winter is over. Relax already.....geez. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: That one scarred me I think. We’ve seen similar scenarios like that a couple times since and this one always had that vibe to me. I was hoping the models were possibly handling a similar setup in the mid range better than they did a decade ago this time. Looks like it still takes them a few days to catch onto the fact that modern airmasses are generally too weak to force the pattern like some runs were depicting. Yep, well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: January 2011... All time model BUST. What days of the month did that happen? **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: January 2011... All time model BUST. Well we always have next winter. Hopefully it starts a little sooner. I would be cool with a 2006/07 repeat. 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Why? Friday 00z was bad too and that followed up with 2 good runs Today's Euro trends. And also because we're still looking at a set time frame for the upcoming stuff, so 48 hours ago is less accurate than today. We're at a point now where I'd like to think the Euro is locking in. Not saying things won't change again, but I didn't like the northward shift today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: What days of the month did that happen? I think it was mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 We are getting near a rug pull here I fear. Where's Chris? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 y’all... 6 1 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 For those who don't remember, in January 2011 models showed a series of lows making landfall far enough South for literally 2-3 feet of snow from PDX to Everett. It got within about 4 days and then the PV pushed West of BC out over the ocean instead if digging South over us which forced the lows further North. Seattle got 3" of overunning snow and Bellingham got about 9" from two storms but that was about it. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Everyone needs to calm down. It’s just one Euro run. 18z EPS will be out soon and we also have the 00z runs later tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Today's Euro trends. And also because we're still looking at a set time frame for the upcoming stuff, so 48 hours ago is less accurate than today. We're at a point now where I'd like to think the Euro is locking in. Not saying things won't change again, but I didn't like the northward shift today. So that's 1 model and the outlier. Others keep us cold and snowy. The Euro has been going back and forth as of late so I'm not buying it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 We are all gonna get spanked when Jim get's on here again. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Acer said: We are getting near a rug pull here I fear. Where's Chris? All of the evening runs are going to be much warmer...I can feel it in my bones. 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The euro is pretty much threatening to make this entire thing a non event for most of the lowlands. Bellingham and BC will probably be the big winners in the end. Pray that the euro is confused and that the GFS will come out winning but betting against the euro in the mid range isn't something I like doing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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