February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

NWS Leaning towards the Canadian solution in latest Discussion.

[kokaneekidz]

14 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

NWS going for 100 foot snow levels hardly seems worth it.

What is the elevation where the Willamette meets the Columbia 10' LOL?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z has me considering finally disconnecting my hoses. 

[TacomaWaWx]

That would be interesting at my house...but it’s the NAM. Hopefully we can get a decent arctic front that moves all the way down the Puget sound for a little snow heading into the cold. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

NWS Leaning towards the Canadian solution in latest Discussion.

12"+ from Salem to Olympia plus crippling ice storm for Eugene. Bring it on. 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

We can't really use a small scale event to comment on a model as a whole. If you look at the bigger picture and large scale evolution, the ECMWF is leading.

Completely fair assessment and I agree. I tend to look at small scale events with too much details so it's something I need to stop doing. 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

NWS Leaning towards the Canadian solution in latest Discussion.

Most interesting SEA AFD since February 2019. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS made a significant jump to the Euro 500mb this morning. But it didn’t jump all the way there.

So when the 12z Euro corrected back somewhat, it might be easy to mistake that as a cave, when in reality it was the GFS that “caved” more-so in amplitude.

Someone must have a large shipment of “DR. NO” tshirts to sell.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm kind of intrigued that I still have a SW wind here.  When the wind shits later it might squeeze out some precip.

Here is Wednesday at 4 p.m. and we still have a good SW wind.

You will get some snow when it shifts to N but that is about 54 hours away still.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

NWS Leaning towards the Canadian solution in latest Discussion.

Funny, that’s the last model I would hug right now. Been a train wreck over the last 4 days, gyrating wildly between solutions with little if any historical precedent for their occurrence.

[Kolk1604]

8 minutes ago, wxmet said:

We can't really use a small scale event to comment on a model as a whole. If you look at the bigger picture and large scale evolution, the ECMWF is leading.

Sweet I really wanna tell me job we have to shut down this weekend or we'll be stuck!

[awright-31]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Most interesting SEA AFD since February 2019. 

Very interesting that out of all of the model solutions, they like the look of the Canadian. I wonder why.

[The Blob]

Portland would be colder if we had let the protesters burn it down.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Austin Wright said:

Very interesting that out of all of the model solutions, they like the look of the Canadian. I wonder why.

Yeah that has my curiosity as well! Wish we had JAYA here still so he could weigh in. 

[Winterdog]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm kind of intrigued that I still have a SW wind here.  When the wind shits later it might squeeze out some precip.

That was intentional.. right?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah that has my curiosity as well! Wish we had JAYA here still so he could weigh in. 

NWWashingtonWX (@wx_washington) / Twitter

[GobBluth]

Portland AFD uses several paragraphs to not say a whole lot.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Sweet I really wanna tell me job we have to shut down this weekend or we'll be stuck!

Do it! Back in Feb. 2019 my workplace had just opened a new facility in Kirkland completely botched inclement weather safety regulations where ice and snow were not properly handled for almost a week. Multiple people ended up getting hurt due to slipping on ice. It wasn't until people refused to come into work was when they started cleaning that up. 

I highly doubt they've learned anything this time around should there be a repeat because that's how the company operates 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

From Pendleton AFD.......

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...There is a good possibility
of a strong winter storm Thursday through Friday, with the
heaviest snow over eastern Oregon and far southern WA. A tight
north-northeast pressure gradient will also bring low wind chills
during this time. An upper low off the Pacific will approach the
OR coast and spread precipitation east of the Cascades Thursday.
The low level upslope combined with the deep layer moisture could
bring moderate to heavy snow to the east slopes of the southern WA
Cascades (mainly in Yakima and Klickitat Counties), the east
slopes of the OR Cascades, the Blue Mountains and the Blue
Mountain Foothills, and central Oregon. The farther north in
eastern WA, the lesser the chance for snow. Surface winds at 10-20
mph could bring blowing and drifting of snow to a few areas, and
wind chills around -5F to 5F cannot be ruled out. Models have had
some timing issues so it`s wise to wait a little longer for a
couple of more model runs to work out the details of this
approaching system.

The aforementioned low will dive south into CA Thursday night with
snow decreasing from the north. Meanwhile, a secondary low is
progged to move south across eastern WA on Friday. It`s a slight
possibility that a stationary front will set up along the WA/OR
border for a prolonged period of snow with these two boundaries
meet. This is according to the latest ECMWF, but can`t get too
excited about this due to the fair amount of spread reviewing the
MSLP of the ECMWF ensembles. Believe the secondary low will help
force the offshore low to the south rather than maintain the
continuous snow for Friday. It`s a complex pattern this weekend
with a fair degree of uncertainty. Differences are mainly the
amplitude of an offshore ridge on Sunday through Monday, and
cluster analysis show ensembles trending toward a more westerly
flow early next week. This would keep mountain snow showers and a
slight chance elsewhere and a little warmer on Monday. Wister

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I am impressed how close this was for being so far out. The overall idea of moisture moving towards an arctic trough are all there.

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A bit less moisture, in reality. 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Nailed!

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Do it! Back in Feb. 2019 my workplace had just opened a new facility in Kirkland completely botched inclement weather safety regulations where ice and snow were not properly handled for almost a week. Multiple people ended up getting hurt due to slipping on ice. It wasn't until people refused to come into work was when they started cleaning that up. 

I highly doubt they've learned anything this time around should there be a repeat because that's how the company operates 

Yeah places never learn or care to look at the weather. 

I'm going to need consistency with cold and snow from the EPS before I can confidently mention anything. Sure looks good though 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah places never learn or care to look at the weather. 

I'm going to need consistency with cold and snow from the EPS before I can confidently mention anything. Sure looks good though 

Meanwhile I already sent an email out to employees to prepare for the winter weather I don't think will happen...

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I am impressed how close this was for being so far out. The overall idea of moisture moving towards an arctic trough are all there.

Yeah people shouldn't really look at the details that far out for precip anyway but it's pretty cool to see it got a good handle on the overall pattern that far out. LR is still the GFS's strong suit imo. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Meanwhile I already sent an email out to employees to prepare for the winter weather I don't think will happen...

Now we know who jinxed us

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Now we know who jinxed us

Well this is in the Salem area, so maybe that just means things will trend NORTH.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well this is in the Salem area, so maybe that just means things will trend NORTH.

In that case, thanks Andrew!

[wxmet]

18z RGEM looks good for a regional event

[Slushy Inch]

25 minutes ago, Austin Wright said:

Very interesting that out of all of the model solutions, they like the look of the Canadian. I wonder why.

Lol, the person that wrote that is clearly rooting for snow.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Lol, the person that wrote that is clearly rooting for snow.

Yeah, I couldn't tell if the implication was that that is the solution they are hoping for, or if it's the one they find to be the most realistic, all things considered. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Pendleton AFD was rather thrilling to read, fully with blizzards intact.

Medford hints at more terrain locked precipitation/snow. Never have I seen so much shadowing in one season, this has been going on since November hence my anemic looking snow total.

[wxmet]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
317 PM PST Mon Feb 8 2021

WAZ001-503-504-506-507-509>512-514>517-555-556-558-559-091130-
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Southwest Interior-
Western Skagit County-Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-
Admiralty Inlet Area-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-
North Coast-Central Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-
Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
317 PM PST Mon Feb 8 2021

...WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK FOR THE LOWLANDS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON...

Cold air over British Columbia is likely to push south into
Western Washington this week. Fraser outflow into the Bellingham
area should increase--with cold wind chills by Thursday across
Whatcom county. Windy conditions are likely to affect the San
Juans islands as well--with northeasterly gales likely across the
waters by Thursday. Areas farther south and near the coast will
also see a cooing trend--but could avoid a hard freeze. After the
colder air arrives, a front might reach the area with a chance of
snow Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio,
weather.gov, or your favorite source of weather information in the
days ahead as the forecast is updated.

[awright-31]

Oh, we have a special weather statement. It’s happening people.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Pendleton AFD was rather thrilling to read, fully with blizzards intact.

Medford hints at more terrain locked precipitation/snow. Never have I seen so much shadowing in one season, this has been going on since November hence my anemic looking snow total.

Just can't get that boundary close enough to you down there. Klamath Falls weather, albeit not nearly as cold, reminds me a lot of Anchorage weather.  It would snow in all points North, South, East, West, and not in Anchorage when I was there.

[GHweatherChris]

Just caught this f**ker mocking me in our backyard, I chased him in to the woods, so we are good..... for now.

[Perturbed Member]

I like where we are sitting now. At least for NW OR and areas north, it is looking increasingly like to be either snowy or very cold and dry and hopefully snow later on. Nothing really indicating SW winds, 40s and/or rain. Gonna be fun to watch the models try to nail the exact track of this system. Hopefully in the coming 24 hours we will get some kind of consensus. I'm expecting things will eventually trend back north a bit but we can probably rule out any lows bombing out and flying to BC at this point.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Just caught this f**ker mocking me in our backyard, I chased him in to the woods, so we are good..... for now.

Thank God you caught him in time!

[MWG]

 From NWS in Medford