Iceresistance Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Why are they pointless? 6 to 10 day outlooks are actually somewhat accurate these days. Also updates every day! @Sonny Summers 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Why are they pointless? 6 to 10 day outlooks are actually somewhat accurate these days. They change all time, but they are a great tool. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Let's look at some AQI's around the region!! This time I tried to get a coastal location and a location further inland from said coastal spot. Vancouver BC - 160 Abbotsford - 326 Bellingham - 157 Maple Falls - 470 Mount Vernon - 158 Lake Stevens - 187 Everett - 72 Gold Bar - 220 Port Angeles - 48 Seattle North - 108 Seattle Downtown - 95 Seattle South - 153 Bellevue - 154 Snoqualmie - 301 Tacoma - 103 Bonney Lake - 152 Aberdeen - 59 Chehalis - 91 Longview- 71 Battle Ground - 204 Vancouver - 166 Camas - 179 Wenatchee - 162 Yakima - 56 Kennewick - 62 Walla Walla - 52 Spokane Downtown - 102 Spokane North - 126 Spokane East - 106 Portland North - 156 Portland Downtown - 130 Gresham - 153 Hillsboro - 105 Astoria - 58 Salem - 149 Eugene - 158 Oakridge - 440 Bend - 114 Medford - 48 This is among the worst I've ever seen it. We need that wind shift! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 Just now, Sonny Summers said: They change all time, but they are a great tool. Except for the weekends when there is no human input for the outlooks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 65/44 here today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Except for the weekends when there is no human input for the outlooks. Unless there is a major storm that is forecasted within the outlook during the weekends. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: I love thinking about this kind of stuff. And these fringe hypotheticals aren't dumb. In fact, humans have used them to solve larger problems since the beginning of reason. Solve one problem for fun, apply your discoveries to other problems. Simple and entertaining. There used to be a model called the NGM (nested grid model), and it was fun to look at, because terrain was not factored into the model. One thing I remember is it often showed straight northerly gradients in the Puget Sound area instead of easterly. That alone would make it a much snowier and colder place. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 Here is the ground smoke levels in Washington right now. By 5pm Wednesday is should be a little less dense, especially in Whatcom County. CURRENT WEDNESDAY BY 5PM Oregon, the smoke will blanket the western half of the state, but it isn't nearly as thick as Washington. The smoke will also get heavier along the Oregon coast. I'm not sure why that is. WEDNESDAY by 5pm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 70 today, forecast was 70. The forecast for tomorrow was around 80, but now is around 75. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Here is the ground smoke levels in Washington right now. By 5pm Wednesday is should be a little less dense, especially in Whatcom County. CURRENT WEDNESDAY BY 5PM Oregon, the smoke will blanket the western half of the state, but it isn't nearly as thick as Washington. The smoke will also get heavier along the Oregon coast. I'm not sure why that is. WEDNESDAY by 5pm Looks like the current map is under doing smoke in Clark county from the Nakia Creek fire? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Unless there is a major storm that is forecasted within the outlook during the weekends. True, but that seems to be the exception rather than the norm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 Just now, DJ Droppin said: True, but that seems to be the exception rather than the norm. Yeah, it does not happen very often. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 The chances for any continental cold in the near future appear to be waning. Could be a long wait for the first freeze. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 While it has been abnormally warm lately, the high temps at the airport don't always paint an accurate depiction of the weather. I live in an area with an immense amount of mature trees. Not much sunlight gets through this time of year. My highs have been consistently 5 degrees lower than the untreed airport for the last two weeks. I haven't hit 80 even once. It is 68 here now and 73 at EUG. Looking forward to the rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 What about the GLAAM? Imagine how cool its ensembles would have been. Dang. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Looks like the current map is under doing smoke in Clark county from the Nakia Creek fire? Possibly, but I think it's pretty accurate. This is only showing the ground level, not the column smoke. Believe it or not, that fire isn't producing much compared to others in the region and it's smoke has mostly been going upward and northward. It also seems to produce smoke columns roughly twice a day then go through a more dormant stage. That will change here in the coming days, but for right now, I'd say it looks pretty accurate. Conditions closest to the fire are horrible though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The chances for any continental cold in the near future appear to be waning. Could be a long wait for the first freeze. Saw that coming from a mile away. The models from 10-12 days away never pan through. I only start believing them about 3-4 days out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Looks like the current map is under doing smoke in Clark county from the Nakia Creek fire? Just as a follow up, I wanted to show you the Nakia Creek Fire's smoke column! It doesn't appear throughout much of the day, but when it does produce smoke, you can definitely see it. The other fires for the most part are producing columns the entire day. Here are two pictures from within the past 24hrs at the peak moments of the Nakia Creek Fire going mad. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The chances for any continental cold in the near future appear to be waning. Could be a long wait for the first freeze. Just checked the Teleconnections, still shows a pattern change to favor Western CONUS cold blasts with the PNA rapidly turning negative. 2 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 thinking tomorrow will be the last 70+ day in my area until April/May ish (hopefully). Thursday will be close (69 is forecast) but I think this is it, FINALLY. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 It's worse outside now for sure. Coughing and almost choking outside immediately. Sort of like 2020. 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 Headaches are returning. Summer 2022 keeps rolling on. 6 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The chances for any continental cold in the near future appear to be waning. Could be a long wait for the first freeze. No biggie. I want rain far more than cold at this stage. 1 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 Glad we will stop testing what is thermodynamically possible this time of year. 3 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: thinking tomorrow will be the last 70+ day in my area until April/May ish (hopefully). Thursday will be close (69 is forecast) but I think this is it, FINALLY. Also me when the 100°F days are finally done. 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 31 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Let's look at some AQI's around the region!! This time I tried to get a coastal location and a location further inland from said coastal spot. Vancouver BC - 160 Abbotsford - 326 Bellingham - 157 Maple Falls - 470 Mount Vernon - 158 Lake Stevens - 187 Everett - 72 Gold Bar - 220 Port Angeles - 48 Seattle North - 108 Seattle Downtown - 95 Seattle South - 153 Bellevue - 154 Snoqualmie - 301 Tacoma - 103 Bonney Lake - 152 Aberdeen - 59 Chehalis - 91 Longview- 71 Battle Ground - 204 Vancouver - 166 Camas - 179 Wenatchee - 162 Yakima - 56 Kennewick - 62 Walla Walla - 52 Spokane Downtown - 102 Spokane North - 126 Spokane East - 106 Portland North - 156 Portland Downtown - 130 Gresham - 153 Hillsboro - 105 Astoria - 58 Salem - 149 Eugene - 158 Oakridge - 440 Bend - 114 Medford - 48 This is among the worst I've ever seen it. Bozeman - 13... I can't believe how bad it is out there still. Just horrible. 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Sonny Summers said: Ellensburg would be like Great Falls or Cut Bank. Spokane would be like Havre or Glasgow. Those places would still be influenced by the Pacific to a greater extent than MT. But it would certainly create interesting weather. 2 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 Wow, I can not properly convey just how awful the smoke is in the NE corner of the city compared to downtown. It's not great in the city, but completely unbearable up here. LET IT RAIN 1 2 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 Pretty decent improvement here in the last couple hours. 2 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 I just got Rick Rolled, analog? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 18, 2022 Report Share Posted October 18, 2022 SEA with 68 today. One last shot at near 70 tomorrow before we won’t see it again until spring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Accumulation is increasing on the patio furniture! 1 5 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Wow, I can not properly convey just how awful the smoke is in the NE corner of the city compared to downtown. It's not great in the city, but completely unbearable up here. LET IT RAIN It’s horrible! My lungs are angry. 1 1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Pretty decent improvement here in the last couple hours. Trend north!!! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Accumulation is increasing on the patio furniture! I brought in and cleaned all my outdoor furniture this morning. After the last big ash fall a week or so ago, I cleaned it and put it back out. This time I cleaned it and wrapped it up. I think we're done for the year. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 40 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Saw that coming from a mile away. The models from 10-12 days away never pan through. I only start believing them about 3-4 days out. Freezes in October are pretty common in the outlying areas so I figured we would come up with something good enough for that to happen at least. As I've said before 1988 was pretty abysmal in the early going so I'm still optimistic about the winter. Just hoped to see an early appetizer. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Had a low of 47F this morning. Currently 61F. We topped out at 63F today. Forecast is showing me something I haven't seen since June. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 I just saw Chris’s food post on FB…Looks sooo good! I think we should have an emergency meeting at his house right now to discuss the big change coming! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 34 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: No biggie. I want rain far more than cold at this stage. A lot of people feel that way, but I want cold. At least it will be pretty cool coming up. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 41 AQI here. Don't hate too much. 2 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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