PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Coldest temps in "several years"? That's an understatement.

I like how he didn’t really mention the potential for record setting lows across the region

[Margaritaville]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I like how he didn’t really mention the potential for record setting lows across the region

The road temps are still too warm

[Weiner Warrior]

17 degrees in Bellevue with DP of 11

[Doinko]

27/9 at PDX with East winds 24g30

[Requiem]

Easterlies have definitely switched on here. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like it’s still a S wind here with clouds. Notice the difference with the DPs across the metro area. Way more favorable toward the airport.

[Jbolin]

2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Solar noon today for the longest shortest shadow. Sun angle was 32.94.

 

 

[TacomaWx]

23 here…definitely on track for teens tomorrow morning. This close to the Puget sound getting below 20 is fairly rare. We actually went from November 2010 all the way to February 2019 without ever dropping below 20 degrees. Since February 2019 we’ve also hit the teens in December 2021 but that’s it. Takes a pretty cold airmass to get the job done. 

[Seattle]

Had a few clouds move in and that bumped the temperature up to 21 from 20. Back down to 20.5. 
SEA is stuck at 21. The hope is it can drop to 19 before midnight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 at SLE now. 

[TacomaWx]

19 in Covington. Jim must be loving this. 

[Chowders]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

yes i also wanted to ask you  but i know @Chowders has a place near that station i just linked 

I have a station there but not connected to the internet.  I'll. Check on Monday and report back what the all time low is.  This will definitely set it.  I am 1 mile from that station that looks to be located at twin lakes.  I was skeptical too, but a couple other stations in the area are currently reporting at least minus 20.  I just checked with a neighbor that is three lots over from me and she said it's currently minus 21 and the high was minus 8. Another neighbor just texted and reported minus 13 but he's on a hill up off the valley floor, that might make a difference.  Looks to be a lot of variability over a small area when scanning the stations in the area. Is that fairly common? I'm a weather novice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

[GHweatherChris]

NWS is getting a hit bullish...

[Gummy]

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

NWS is getting a hit bullish...

Starting at 3:00 PM? The models don't show any precip nearly that early on Thurs.

Edit: yea I thought so . . .

"Ensemble guidance showing a slower trend with the precipitation

expected to begin to move into the area Thursday evening - with
the most likely forecast now highlighting precipitation beginning
to move onto the coast during the evening and into the interior
after midnight. "

[Tenochtitlan]

Winds are calm here now, but there was blowing snow throughout the day. This sidewalk was totally bare this morning.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

NWS is getting a hit bullish...

They had a disclaimer that it's not what they predict but rather what is possible (even if improbable) for that particular time frame so they can show potential impacts. So there is a possibility of snow at 3 PM in Seattle, even though the chances are low. They're trying here, but I think it's too much info for the average normy to process. "But they did it was going to snow at 3 PM. Why is just cloudy." Ugh. Still with something potentially dangerous I'd rather see them give all the info they can than bow to quick sound bites.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Down to 24 here after a high of 38. Gusty east winds but without the downslope signature so far, which is a win in my book. The CAA this afternoon and evening has been really fun to track, it looks like we still have 24 hours or so of it to go!

Nice to see PDX well into the 20s before midnight too. Crown Point just dropped to 19 and there is a lot of cold air upstream still. 

[Doinko]

The GEM shows ice in the Gorge until midday Tuesday and then snow levels drop back to the passes

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Down to 24 here after a high of 38. Gusty east winds but without the downslope signature so far, which is a win in my book. The CAA this afternoon and evening has been really fun to track, it looks like we still have 24 hours or so of it to go!

Nice to see PDX well into the 20s before midnight too. Crown Point just dropped to 19 and there is a lot of cold air upstream still. 

I forecasted 27 at midnight for PDX. Looks like they may shave a degree or two off that. Sub 25 would be sexier for posterity. Either way their high is almost guaranteed to come at midnight, which isn't something we've been able to say very often in recent cold seasons and is a hallmark of strong CAA.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I forecasted 27 at midnight for PDX. Looks like they may shave a degree or two off that. Sub 25 would be sexier for posterity. Either way their high is almost guaranteed to come at midnight, which isn't something we've been able to say very often in recent cold seasons and is a hallmark of strong CAA.

I think the 23 from 2014 is out of reach but that would be amazing if we could somehow get close to or below that

[Deweydog]

Down to a well mixed 10 at Dry Creek. Still plenty of advection to go.

[RentonHill]

25 minutes ago, Chowders said:

I have a station there but not connected to the internet.  I'll. Check on Monday and report back what the all time low is.  This will definitely set it.  I am 1 mile from that station that looks to be located at twin lakes.  I was skeptical too, but a couple other stations in the area are currently reporting at least minus 20.  I just checked with a neighbor that is three lots over from me and she said it's currently minus 21 and the high was minus 8. Another neighbor just texted and reported minus 13 but he's on a hill up off the valley floor, that might make a difference.  Looks to be a lot of variability over a small area when scanning the stations in the area. Is that fairly common? I'm a weather novice.

Yes huge variability there. We are ~800 ft off twisp valley floor and are only at -9 right now which is the coldest temp so far. Beats last year by 2 degrees. 

[Doinko]

How much ice/sleet does the GEM show for Oregon?

[Winterdog]

12F here now.  Single digits pretty much assured if it stays mostly clear.  

[Phishy Wx]

stuck at 0 the past hour.  WC averaging -10 to -15

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How much ice/sleet does the GEM show for Oregon?

Wow

[SouthHillFrosty]

RGEM might fuck around and start a trend maybe 

[GHweatherChris]

25 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Starting at 3:00 PM? The models don't show any precip nearly that early on Thurs.

Edit: yea I thought so . . .

"Ensemble guidance showing a slower trend with the precipitation

expected to begin to move into the area Thursday evening - with
the most likely forecast now highlighting precipitation beginning
to move onto the coast during the evening and into the interior
after midnight. "

I think it will be earlier than progged, and according to what I posted they do as well for the coast and Aberdeen.

[Doinko]

Snowing moderately and -6 degrees. I'm really glad I came to Denver this week

[GHweatherChris]

26 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

They had a disclaimer that it's not what they predict but rather what is possible (even if improbable) for that particular time frame so they can show potential impacts. So there is a possibility of snow at 3 PM in Seattle, even though the chances are low. They're trying here, but I think it's too much info for the average normy to process. "But they did it was going to snow at 3 PM. Why is just cloudy." Ugh. Still with something potentially dangerous I'd rather see them give all the info they can than bow to quick sound bites.

Sure, but they see the potential like me and a couple others do on here.  That's the beauty of this, noone knows.

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 18 degrees.

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I think the 23 from 2014 is out of reach but that would be amazing if we could somehow get close to or below that

Yeah, that along with the 23 on 1/30/1996 is their post-1990 benchmark.

This has a fairly good chance of being their coldest daytime high since 1990.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

22 below at the station near my cabin

If the wind dies temp will approach 40 below. Man I wish I was up there to drive around in the valleys. I know for a fact the valley directly below this station is alway 10 to 15 degrees colder. 

[Doinko]

Still 27 at PDX. DP down to 8 though

[The Blob]

24 in Troutdale

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Wow

No likey. 

I don't see much of a chance that the majority of the Portland metro escapes with less than 1/2" of ice.

Edited December 22, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Hawksfan2008]

Highly anticipated EURO run. It’s strange because the meteorological part of me has a passion for all extreme weather, but the homeowner with trees all around who wishes safety for everyone wants this to bust. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 26 below I had a few years back was just in a decent airmass but with awesome radiationial cooling.

I talked to a old dude up there last winter that said he had 50 below in 1989. I wish I knew if it was true because that is colder than the state record.

 

[Cloud]

20 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The GEM shows ice in the Gorge until midday Tuesday and then snow levels drop back to the passes

No way. That’s some horrible crap for down there.