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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Looks like ICON caved. To itself.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Holy hell that place is kinda negative sometimes, everything in Mark’s post indicated that a metro area event is on the table, just a matter of details.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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GFS just refuses to show much precip on Wednesday with the arctic front.   Definitely going with the ECMWF on that one.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

GEM is basically the same, system actually looks a bit stronger.rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_73.png

00z RDPS/RGEM looks good for snow from PDX to SEA. Starts getting icy South of PDX Metro. Snow/ice accumulations through Friday 4am.

snku_acc.us_nw.png

zr_acc.us_nw.png

 

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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2 hours ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Had a high of 35 today and currently down below freezing 31... MY coldest days are the best yet to come. I will not have a high above freezing for at least a week or longer. WEEEEEeeeee!!

 

Pretty common during normal winters. We won't get much snow with the arctic front. We might get a few flurries. Although, last minute surprises do sometimes happen. The 18z Euro was showing some light qpf for Thursday and Friday. A few wind blown snow showers are possible. If you want to enjoy the wind, go over to Liberty Lake or Post Falls and points east. They always have nasty NNE winds.

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ION is bizarre. Basically stalls the arctic front in the mid-valley. Quite a bit of snow Friday even in Albany/Salem and then the snow line gradually creeps north. PDX looks to score big. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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FWIW Mark Nelsen is ignoring the GFS's idea of sending everything way south for now because he feels it is an outlier even relative to its ensembles and it obviously disagrees with the Euro which he relies on most heavily. 

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icon_asnow_nwus_49.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

FWIW Mark Nelsen is ignoring the GFS's idea of sending everything way south for now because he feels it is an outlier even relative to its ensembles and it obviously disagrees with the Euro which he relies on most heavily. 

I'm going to give him a weenie

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ION is bizarre. Basically stalls the arctic front in the mid-valley. Quite a bit of snow Friday even in Albany/Salem and then the snow line gradually creeps north. PDX looks to score big. 

Pendleton AFD hinted at a second surge of moisture/deformation band forming on Friday somewhere between the arctic boundary and the departing low from Thursday.  

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GFS going way south again. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_12.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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GFS looks a bit north at 72 hrs compared to 18z. Probably because it's digging the B.C. trough out more on this run.

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ION is bizarre. Basically stalls the arctic front in the mid-valley. Quite a bit of snow Friday even in Albany/Salem and then the snow line gradually creeps north. PDX looks to score big. 

it never pushes the low in until monday. very bizarre

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Down to 28 here, dewpoint 20.  Just made my son go out and check his coolant in case things get as crazy as some of the models show there in Bozeman.  It is -1 there now, currently wunderground is showing -21 by Friday.  My mother in law is in Great Falls, they went below 0 Saturday and probably won't get above 0 again until next week.

 

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Isn't the EURO showing 40 tomorrow at BLI? Seems unlikely.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

That's extremely close to the most optimal setup for the metro area possible. Need a 72 hour miracle for it to hold.

Would give us much more breathing room with that pesky warm nose too.

Gotta love the silly surface temps the GFS puts out during this snowfall.

sfct.us_nw.png

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Would give us much more breathing room with that pesky warm nose too.

Gotta love the silly surface temps the GFS puts out during this snowfall.

sfct.us_nw.png

Implying the arctic front has somehow slipped south of Eugene? 

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There is a lot more moisture to work with on this run. Hangs around longer too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Would give us much more breathing room with that pesky warm nose too.

Gotta love the silly surface temps the GFS puts out during this snowfall.

sfct.us_nw.png

They're really not that silly. The odds may disfavor it at present, but readings like that just might verify.

The runs that were showing single digits were the ones that obviously were not going to happen.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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While it's a bit too early to say the GFS just started it's trend north, which I assume we all figured would happen, it's definitely a small step in that direction. 06z GFS will be very telling (unless it goes all 06z on us, at which point I'd defer to the 12z). 

I'm liking Western WA's spot for this.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Just now, GobBluth said:

Implying the arctic front has somehow slipped south of Eugene? 

The arctic front never makes it west of the Cascades.  Anything in the valley is purely from the gorge.  What the posters on here like to call a backdoor event.

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