PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Timmy]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I'm curious about the Sunday event at this point-- still a ways off but does that have a chance to potentially be juicier than modeled? It will be interesting seeing an organized front like that move through and drop snow without any hint of offshore flow.

It has more to do with relatively flat gradients and established cold/dps 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The highest resolution model there is depicts the most likely scenario. Swing and a miss for Portland. 1-3’’ elsewhere from Eugene to Wilsonville. 

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I think we will by about March 10th. Whether it's a lasting pattern change to wetter/milder or we get back into the cool/troughy pattern remains to be seen. What I see on this is a more progressive and variable pattern starting to emerge towards the 10th of March, but not necessarily zonal flow breaking through. 

Agreed.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I'm curious about the Sunday event at this point-- still a ways off but does that have a chance to potentially be juicier than modeled? It will be interesting seeing an organized front like that move through and drop snow without any hint of offshore flow.

I would kill for any organized front at this point regardless of precipitation type.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Absolute ton of snow imby shown on the gfs over the next 2 weeks. The pattern shown delivers out here so it is possible. If this pattern continues then i expect to get at least one huge dump of snow over 8 inches.

[LowerGarfield]

At what point in the year does the forum give up on long range snow maps from the GFS? Like if say it showed snow at Mossman's in June? I don't mean this as a weenie post, esp after last April's week of snow. But an honest question.

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The highest resolution model there is depicts the most likely scenario. Swing and a miss for Portland. 1-3’’ elsewhere from Eugene to Wilsonville. 

 

WRF gives the middle finger to North Portland, not bad for west and south metro and looks good for parts of Clark Co too.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The highest resolution model there is depicts the most likely scenario. Swing and a miss for Portland. 1-3’’ elsewhere from Eugene to Wilsonville. 

 

Looks good here but hoping the rest of PDX can get some more snow. HRRR looks decent.

 

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The highest resolution model there is depicts the most likely scenario. Swing and a miss for Portland. 1-3’’ elsewhere from Eugene to Wilsonville. 

 

Shows 2 inches here which I would be very happy with. Still the best snow potential we have had all winter. 

[RentonHill]

OMGGGGGG

[Doinko]

3km NAM has the low way south, towards Cape Blanco

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

OMGGGGGG

AHAGAGAHAHSHSGSDHSH SHHHH SAY DHDYSGSHSHSGD!!!

LFG!

 

 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

OMGGGGGG

OMGGGGGG…Worst map I have seen yet! 
 

For me. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

OMGGGGGG…Worst map I have seen yet! 
 

For me. 

[joelgombiner]

Getting some ice pellets or graupel on the southern edge of this band. 

[Perturbed Member]

KPTV is decently bullish. 

 

Sometime during the afternoon, a cold east wind will arrive. This will cause temperatures to fall back into the low 30s and eventually the 20s. Expect accumulating snow between Wednesday late afternoon and early Thursday.

The big question that everyone has been asking: how much snow will we see in the lowlands west of the Cascades? There will be a low pressure system just to our west, with showers pinwheeling around it. Some of our highest resolution computer models are depicting organized bands of snow (steadier snow) developing Wednesday evening. This could lead to large swaths of the lowlands (and even the coast) picking up 3-5 inches of snow. For the areas that see more showery conditions, expect closer to a dusting to a couple inches. Snow totals will vary quite a bit from city to city. Having said that, all of us need to be prepared for frozen roads by Thursday morning with lows dropping into the 20s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

KPTV is decently bullish. 

 

Sometime during the afternoon, a cold east wind will arrive. This will cause temperatures to fall back into the low 30s and eventually the 20s. Expect accumulating snow between Wednesday late afternoon and early Thursday.

The big question that everyone has been asking: how much snow will we see in the lowlands west of the Cascades? There will be a low pressure system just to our west, with showers pinwheeling around it. Some of our highest resolution computer models are depicting organized bands of snow (steadier snow) developing Wednesday evening. This could lead to large swaths of the lowlands (and even the coast) picking up 3-5 inches of snow. For the areas that see more showery conditions, expect closer to a dusting to a couple inches. Snow totals will vary quite a bit from city to city. Having said that, all of us need to be prepared for frozen roads by Thursday morning with lows dropping into the 20s.

So odd to see Mark riding the GFS from the weekend on. 

[Perturbed Member]

The NAM is really on something, the way it handles this low...

 

Compare with something like the GEM and GFS

 

 

[Timmy]

The nam hates everyone 

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So odd to see Mark riding the GFS from the weekend on. 

He might be relying on the GRAF, that's been pretty consistent on 3-5" for PDX

[Deweydog]

Just now, Timmy said:

The nam hates everyone 

Valley whiteout!!

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

The NAM is really on something, the way it handles this low...

 

Compare with something like the GEM and GFS

 

 

To be fair the NAM has been slowly inching north in accordance w other models. It's having a moment I fear 

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

He might be relying on the GRAF, that's been pretty consistent on 3-5" for PDX

Too bad the 12z GRAF is MIA

The 06z run looked like a best case scenario for PDX metro. 2-6 inches. Pretty juicy. 

[MossMan]

Why can’t we ever seem to get juicy arctic fronts that slam down upon western Washington bringing massive winds, snows, convergence snows, flash freezes, and mass chaos anymore??? These slow as snails, uneventful, hardly any moisture or winds (unless you are in Whatcom Co) boring events are…Boring. 
 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

45 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We pretty much use metric for everything except construction supplies. 

And cooking.

The thermostat on my wall is in °C. The one on my oven is in °F. This is normal in Canada.

[FroYoBro]

Getting some big sloppy flakes mixing in with the rain while I’m working in the fancy neighborhood of Bull Mountain. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So odd to see Mark riding the GFS from the weekend on. 

ECMWF shows snow on Sunday morning too.  

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Getting some ice pellets or graupel on the southern edge of this band. 

Yeah I’ve been waiting for that one to get here in Redmond. 

[Cloud]

19 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

OMGGGGGG

I think maybe it’s time my location gets in on the action for the season? While SEA has over 6”… I’m pretty sure it’s about 1.5-2” here at BFI. Pretty much missed out on all the snow so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows snow on Sunday morning too.  

I know, which is surprising to see him completely discount it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some really bad news for cold/snow fans. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know, which is surprising to see him completely discount it. 

Ahhh... I see what you are saying now.     He is ignoring the ECMWF and the GEM.  

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Why can’t we ever seem to get juicy arctic fronts that slam down upon western Washington bringing massive winds, snows, convergence snows, flash freezes, and mass chaos anymore??? These slow as snails, uneventful, hardly any moisture or winds (unless you are in Whatcom Co) boring events are…Boring. 
 

Says the guy that pretty much hogs all the snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS has updated our zone forecast.

Saturday

A slight chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.

Saturday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Sunday

Snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy.

Sunday Night

Snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I’ve been waiting for that one to get here in Redmond. 

Looks promising!

[OysterPrintout]

18 minutes ago, Doinko said:

He might be relying on the GRAF, that's been pretty consistent on 3-5" for PDX

Yeah mark has been a pretty big GRAF advocate (so am I right now) and when he says "higher resolution models" he's not talking about the GFS. 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Says the guy that pretty much hogs all the snow.

That stupid NAM map sent me over the edge…I have had nearly 3” of rain in less than 3 days but when it becomes cold enough for snow I will get .02” (if I’m lucky) of precip over the next 4 days.  
Then maybe 1.5” of slop Sunday morning before turning to rain! Yay! 

I’m ready for summer. 
I never sleep well when the power is out…It’s way too quiet. I’m cranky. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really wish we could see what the GRAF is showing right now. 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Looks promising!

What a blessing.